AFL Mailbag: Eric Patterson emerges

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AFL Mailbag: Eric Patterson emerges
11/08/2006 7:51 PM ET
By Jonathan Mayo / MLB.com

Celebrating the Democrats' victories? Lamenting the Republicans' losses? Wondering why your favorite Green Party candidate only got 32 votes? That's OK, all Election Day-related emotional states are welcome here in the AFL Mailbag.
Of course, the only thing better than watching your party retake both houses would be if, after you've read the fine Q&A below, you get involved in the act. All you have to do is send in your emails about the Fall League and we'll answer the best of the lot every week. For a double-bonus, many of the queries also will be answered on the air by Jonathan Mayo and Lisa Winston during their hour on MLB Radio (Tuesdays and Fridays, noon-1 p.m. ET), appropriately titled, The AFL on ATM.
Do you think Eric Patterson is on track to become an average Major Leaguer? He kind of reminds me of Scott Hairston. --Adam F., Calif.
That's not a bad comparison in many ways, including going into the "family business." Both at one time played the same position, though Hairston is now an outfielder. Both can hit some -- Hairston's got a .322 batting average in 474 Minor League games, while Patterson's at .299. Here's where they diverge: Patterson has hit double-digit homers in his first two seasons while moving very quickly up the Cubs' ladder, but his game is really his speed. He's swiped 89 bags in two years. Hairston has more pop and can be more of a run-producer.
Of course, Patterson did have 10 homers, 10 triples and 23 doubles in 2006, not too bad for a leadoff type. His outstanding AFL season -- .354, 12 RBIs, 10 SB in 20 games -- can't hurt, either. With the Cubs very thin at his position, it's possible you'll soon see Patterson at Wrigley, where I think he'll fare better than his brother did. In the end, I think he has the chance to be more than average once he establishes himself.
Mark Reynolds and Chris Carter have both put up some really nice numbers the past two years in the Diamondbacks organization, and now Reynolds is on fire in the AFL. Is either of them good enough to supplant Jackson or Tracy in the lineup? Or is it more likely that one or both would be traded to bring more pitching into the organization? Each guy totaled 50 homers over the past two seasons combined. How legit is the power? --John W.
OK, so this isn't purely an AFL-related question, but we'll allow it. Simply, I don't think either Reynolds or Carter will supplant Jackson or Tracy in 2007. Allow me to elaborate.
Let's start with Reynolds. We're big fans of his, but he's still probably a year away. Remember, he only has 30 games of Double-A ball under his belt. And while he did slug eight homers in that time, his average was .272, a nice drop from the .337 he hit in the California League. Don't get me wrong, I think he'll be a Major Leaguer soon, and I think his power is fairly legit. But thanks to the new CBA, the Diamondbacks have an extra year before they'd have to put him on the 40-man roster. Before last year, he'd shown some power but not much else with the bat. In addition, he doesn't have a defensive home. That might eventually get him to the bigs as a super-utility guy, but it may not give him the chance to supplant Tracy at third, as you suggest, at least not right away.
Then there's Carter. Again, the organization bought another year of keeping him off the roster. Unlike Reynolds, he's been a consistent hitter since he was drafted out of Stanford in 2004. He's got a .306 career average and .522 slugging percentage. After hitting 31 homers and driving in 115 runs across two levels in 2005, he batted .301 with 19 homers and 97 RBIs for the PCL champion Tucson Sidewinders. It appears his power bat is ready for a big-league shot. That said, he's not going to take Jackson's place for two reasons: 1. Jackson is good. Hitting .279 with 15 homers and 79 RBIs is not too shabby for a rookie season; 2. While Jackson isn't exactly a defensive whiz, he's still relatively new to the position (he'll never win a Gold Glove there, but I think he'll be OK in time). Carter, however, has always been a first baseman and has never been very adept with the glove. He made 15 errors last season after committing 16 in 2005. He's got DH written all over him, so maybe he's the guy who gets dealt for pitching.
I'm just wondering if you could tell me a bit about all the Blue Jays prospects playing in the AFL this year. I know Chip Cannon is having a great fall, but I was wondering if you could tell me a bit about the other prospects. --Brad
I'd be happy to. First, a word on Cannon: He currently leads the AFL in homers and RBIs. The only thing standing between him and the Triple Crown is a couple guys named Kevin Frandsen and Yunel Escobar, who are both hitting .400 or better. Cannon, the poor soul, is scuffling at .375. So that should be fun to watch down the stretch. Now, onto the other Jays in Arizona:
You're probably familiar with Dustin McGowan by now, especially after he's logged more than 70 innings with Toronto. He's got tremendous stuff but hasn't found a way to harness it consistently, either as a starter or reliever. To be fair, he had Tommy John surgery in 2004 and is still working his way back. He gets people to swing and miss quite a bit, but his command sometimes eludes him. He was removed from the Phoenix roster on Nov. 6, most likely because he had reached his innings limit.
Catcher Curtis Thigpen was Kyle Yates' (see below) batterymate at times at the University of Texas, though more often than not, he played first because of the presence of Taylor Teagarden. He's taken to full-time catching very well with the Jays and made it all the way to Triple-A in just his second full season. He's batted .279 in his career, but there is upside for him offensively as a line-drive hitter with good plate discipline. He's had a solid AFL season, hitting .286 with a .400 OBP, .524 SLG and 16 RBIs in 16 games.
Jordan DeJong is a right-handed reliever who's moved past the age where one is usually considered a "prospect." This fall may be more important to him than anyone else from the Jays organization. He might be fighting for a roster spot or auditioning for other teams doing Rule 5 Draft scouting, as he's not currently on the 40-man. He's got a 3.00 ERA in 10 games, giving up only five hits over 12 innings while striking out 10 and walking five. He's spent parts of four seasons in Double-A, finally breaking through to Triple-A this past season. In his career, he's got a 3.31 ERA and 50 saves with just about a strikeout an inning.
Tracy Thorpe is another reliever who has taken a while to develop, but unlike DeJong, he's on the 40-man roster and the organization's patience with him looks like it's about to pay off. He spent three seasons in the South Atlantic League, two of them as a starter. He then had parts of two years in the Florida State League before finally moving up to Double-A in 2005. It was this past year with New Hampshire, though, when Thorpe really started to take off. He posted 18 saves with a 2.91 ERA in 55 2/3 innings, holding Eastern League foes to a .169 average and striking out 62. The 24-year-old's overall numbers in the AFL -- 5.40 ERA, .256 average against -- don't overwhelm, but he's been locked in lately. He's allowed just one hit and no runs over his last four outings, spanning five innings. During that time, he's walked one and struck out seven. Pitching like that in the hitter-friendly AFL could vault him into the Jays' plans soon.
Kyle Yates came to the Jays in the 13th round of the 2004 draft as a reliever out of Texas and he's turned himself into a pretty good starting pitcher prospect. Recently named the AFL Pitcher of the Week, he really began taking off in the second half of the 2005 season when he moved from the Midwest League up to the Florida State League. There, he had a 1.91 ERA in 14 starts. He moved up again to Double-A this season, spending most of the year with New Hampshire. After a rough April and a trip down to Dunedin to right himself, he finished with a 3.75 ERA and a nifty 102-38 K-BB ratio in 127 1/3 innings, using a killer curve as his best pitch. The Jays have an extra year (again because of the new CBA) before they have to decide whether to put him on the 40-man. With a 1.42 ERA in 19 AFL innings, chances are he'll earn a spot there next year. A good start could see him contributing in Toronto at some point in 2007.
Have you seen Matthew Miller play this fall? If so, what did you think? This is a former Tourist for whom I have big expectations. --Tony F., Asheville, N.C.
We haven't really seen him in Arizona, but he is a pretty interesting guy. He's got power, but after the year he had in Asheville, in which he hit 30 homers and drove in 100 runs while batting .331, he's needed to show that he could do it again. Joe Koshansky jumped to Double-A this year, but Miller moved up one level to Modesto. In 92 games there, he hit .323 with 12 homers and 77 RBIs and was co-winner of Home Run Derby at the California/Carolina League All-Star Game. He clearly has some offensive skills, but they beg watching when your first stop after the bandbox in Asheville is Modesto. It's not like he was going to some expansive park. He only hit .229 in 27 games with Double-A Tulsa.
But in the Fall League, he's batted .322 with four homers and 14 RBIs in 15 games. I don't want to say he's a guy who has to prove himself again at every level, but kind of like Koshansky, he needs to show he can do it at a higher level against more advanced pitching. Amazingly, he doesn't strike out a lot. He had 37 strikeouts in 92 games last year; he's not one of these guys who swings and misses. He may not be the power hitter you saw in Asheville, but he might be a pretty good all-around hitter.
What did Elijah Dukes do now to draw the ire of the AFL? He had his game-winning homer, played the next game, then got replaced by Cody Strait as a last-minute scratch. Did he sprain his ankle? Or did he just do something that he shouldn't have? With the AFL, I've noticed if you do something bad or get injured, you usually get sent home quick. So, Niemann sticking in the AFL with his "soreness" and Dukes just missing games but not going home is a bit calming to a Rays fan. However, I'd rather see them in action than sticking on the bench. --Jake
Jake, you've become an AFL Mailbag mainstay, but you need to step away from the ledge. Dukes' issues in the past have been well-documented, but is it necessary to automatically jump to that conclusion when he misses some time in the Fall League? Maybe he has to prove that he can get past those problems, but presuming he's gotten into trouble right away isn't going to help anyone. For the record, Dukes hasn't played since Nov. 2 because of shin splints. It's a problem he's had in the past and his legs have been bothering him in Arizona because he had to dial it up so quickly after he was added to the Phoenix roster. You can take a deep breath. It's not anything serious.
This story was not subject to the approval of the National Association of Professional Baseball Leagues or its clubs.