Establishing trade value for Braves' Upton

'Tis the season, right? Not just for holidays, but also for trades, trades and more trades. The Winter Meetings are a market for clubs looking to fill holes in their respective rosters, with Jeff Samardzija, Brandon Moss and Miguel Montero already dealt in the last week alone. There is assuredly more to come.

Who is next, and what exactly will he bring in return? Earlier in the week, colleague Jake Seiner took a look at potential packages for Samardzija and Cole Hamels using historical analysis based on previous deals involving starting pitchers. Here, where we'll explore what type of prospect packages All-Star outfielder Justin Upton could bring back to the Braves, we're going to take a different approach.

Modeled after Jeff Sullivan's examination for FanGraphs of a potential Cole Hamels-to-Boston deal, this will be based on what surplus value Upton would bring to his new organization and then trying to formulate potential returns based on that.

As Jake notes, it's important to remember that contracts -- whether expensive like Matt Kemp's or short and with no promise of team control like Upton's -- play a role trade returns. Beyond that, how much Player X can be expected to outperform that contract adds another level.

With that in mind, what exactly is a prospect with no Major League contract or experience worth? PiratesProspects.com's Kevin Creagh and D Rays Bay's Michael Valancius did their best to answer the question back in 2012.

Using that as background, let's dive in:

What Upton is as a player: Upton is coming off the better of his two seasons in Atlanta, having put up a .270/.342/.491 line with 29 home runs, two triples, 34 doubles and 102 RBIs over 154 games. He played exclusively in left field for the Braves, where he was an average defender as evidenced by his 0 Defensive Runs Saved and -1.1 UZR/150. Still, his bat was plenty good enough to carry him to a 3.9 WAR based on Fangraphs' metrics (fWAR), third-highest among Braves position players behind only defensive wizard Jason Heyward (5.1) and masher Freddie Freeman (4.2). That 3.9 WAR was also the second-highest such mark of his career, trailing only his 2011 season with the D-backs when he posted a 6.1 WAR thanks to career bests in OPS (.898), home runs (31) and steals (21).

Steamer projections don't have Upton regressing much from his 2014 numbers next season, giving him a .262/.344/.460 line with 26 homers and 3.1 fWAR.

What that means for his worth: Now, we get to Upton's contract. Prior to the 2010 campaign he signed a six-year, $51.2 million contract with the D-backs, the team that took him first overall in 2005 (they shipped him to Atlanta in 2013). That leaves only a year left on that deal for the 27-year-old Upton with $14.5 million set to come his way, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts, before he becomes a free agent next offseason.

All in all, that's actually a fine value for someone of Upton's talents. If we evaluate a 1.0 WAR as being worth either $6 or 7 million and use ballpark figures for Upton's expected 2015 WAR, this is what we get for his expected 2015 surplus value. (All dollar amounts are in millions.)

I set the upper level on his expected WAR at 4.0, as he came close to that number in 2014 and has eclipsed it twice in his career. I feel just as comfortable setting his lower bound at 2.5, only 0.6 below his Steamer projection but a number he has also dipped below only twice since becoming a full-timer in 2008.

Given those numbers, we can project that Upton will be worth between $4-10 million of surplus to his new team, assuming no other money is involved. Now to find a match.

Potential packages: According to the New York Post's Joel Sherman, the Braves are looking for starting pitching or a Major League-ready second baseman in return for their slugging outfielder. It should be noted that only second baseman among MLB.com's top 100 prospects -- Jose Peraza -- is already in the Atlanta system, so the focus here will be mostly on arms.

If we use previous studies as our guides, pitchers in the lower half of the top-100 prospect lists or ones that fall just outside the top 100 would add in the range of $4-10 million of worth. With that in mind, here are some prospects interested teams could include. (Note: these are deals for Upton only. Should he be paired with Chris Johnson or Evan Gattis in a deal, the following packages would have to be adjusted.)

Giants -- Kyle Crick: The World Series champs are said to be moving on to offense after losing the Jon Lester sweepstakes, and USA Today's Bob Nightengale has them in search of Upton. Crick is their top prospect, ranked No. 46 overall by MLB.com. His stock will likely slip when rankings are updated after an oblique injury kept him from reaching 100 innings for the second straight season and his control continued to fail him (6.1 BB/9 at Double-A Richmond in 2014). He remains a strikeout machine (11.1 career K/9), however, thanks to a 70-grade fastball and a hard slider. He'd become the Braves' top pitching prospect, with a chance to reach Atlanta in late 2015. On San Francisco's side, it'd be tough to give up their top prospect for a one-year rental, but we've established the surplus value they'd be getting in Upton compared to the question mark that hangs over Crick's future.

Royals -- Christian Colon and John Lamb: Due to service time, Colon, the fourth overall pick in the 2010 Draft, has technically graduated out of Kansas City's top-20 list on MLB.com, but he was ranked No. 10 in the system by Baseball America and would be an immediate fit at second base until Peraza is ready for big league duty. Colon batted .310 with an .800 OPS in 86 Triple-A games a season ago and hit .333 in 49 plate appearances with the big club. He has experience all over the infield, so it wouldn't be hard to slide him elsewhere to make room for Peraza. Lamb is Kansas City's No. 20 prospect and rounds out the package. The 24-year-old southpaw found some consistency in 2014 for the first time since Tommy John surgery in 2011, posting a 3.97 ERA with 131 strikeouts in 138 1/3 innings with Triple-A Omaha.

Rangers -- Alex Gonzalez: Gonzalez, the 23rd overall pick in the 2013 Draft, had a splendid first full season, putting up a 2.66 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP and 113 strikeouts in 138 2/3 innings between Class A Advanced Myrtle Beach and Double-A Frisco. He's currently MLB.com's No. 93 prospect, fitting our profile. That doesn't mean Texas will offer him, however. The Rangers, who have an outfield opening with Alex Rios' departure, reportedly shot down a Gonzalez-for-Evan Gattis offer from the Braves, and Gattis (2.3 WAR in 2014) isn't even eligible for arbitration until 2016.

Orioles -- Jonathan Schoop and Tyler Wilson: Similar in many ways to the Royals' package. Schoop, once a highly regarded prospect in the Orioles system, saw his stock slip in his first big league season. He batted only .209 with a .598 OPS but was able to muster 0.6 WAR, thanks to good defense at second base. Steamer tickets him for only 1.0 WAR in 2015, meaning he'll be worth between $5.5-6.5 million in surplus next season alone. That could be good enough for a one-to-one swap, especially considering Schoop is only 23 and has years of team control ahead, but given his struggles and Peraza's impending arrival, the Braves might need a sweetener in the form of Wilson. The O's No. 15 prospect, Wilson posted a 3.67 ERA and struck out 157 in 166 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A in 2014. Such a deal would leave Baltimore with some holes, but the addition of Upton could make the defending AL East champs miss Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis a lot less.

Padres -- Matt Wisler: The Padres have been most notably linked to Matt Kemp in their pursuit of a power bat for the corner outfield, but they could match up well with the Braves if they were willing to take on Upton for just the one year. Wisler checks in at No. 61 overall on MLB.com's top 100 and is likely to slip after posting a 5.01 ERA with 101 strikeouts in 116 2/3 innings at Triple-A El Paso last summer. Still, he just turned 22 in September and, considering that was the first misstep of his pro career, could be poised to find better success at the Triple-A level in 2015. Upton, meanwhile, would instantly become the Padres' best hitter.