Toolshed: Revisiting the 2014 deadline

This is part of a series of Friday columns we're calling the Toolshed, focusing on some of the more interesting prospect-centered storylines as the 2015 season develops. Have ideas, feedback or questions for Sam? Email him or tweet him @SamDykstraMiLB. (Note: All stats are as of Thursday.)

Today is July 31, and if you don't know what that means for baseball, we appreciate your click but we don't know how you ended up here.

Yes, today marks Major League Baseball's non-waiver trade deadline -- the last point at which Major League teams can swap players without having to worry about those players passing through waivers first. It's a time for the downtrodden to become sellers and the successful to become big-time buyers. With David Price, Troy Tulowitzki, Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels already on the move, this has been one of the most exciting deadlines in recent memory.

But in today's age of instant analysis, we tend to look at the trades as they happen and evaluate winners and losers on the spot. In reality, most of these trades include prospects, meaning we need time -- often a year or more -- to evaluate accurately who got the better end of a baseball trade. With that in mind, let's look back at five of last year's deadline swaps to see just who got the advantage with hindsight on our side.

Major League headliners: Jeff Samardzija (A's), Jason Hammel (A's)
Major prospects: Addison Russell (Cubs), Billy McKinney (Cubs)
Impact: The A's were making a playoff push and were out to add starting pitching at whatever cost. They achieved that aim by acquiring left-hander Jon Lester (whose trade won't be included here because he was swapped for Major League outfielder Yoenis Cespedes) on deadline day and Samardzija/Hammel. Samardzija was the big get in Oakland's deal with the Cubs and performed dutifully, going 5-6 with a 3.14 ERA, 99 strikeouts and only 12 walks in 111 2/3 innings during his time with Oakland. (Hammel wasn't as good, going 2-6 with a 4.26 ERA in 67 2/3 innings.) The A's earned their spot at the playoff table as the American League's second Wild Card but fell to the Royals, 9-8, in a thrilling, 12-inning playoff game in Kansas City. Lester got the start, and Hammel gave up the walk-off single to Salvador Perez. Samardzija never pitched an inning in the playoffs for the A's. All three pitchers left Oakland for Chicago in free agency with Samardzija going to the White Sox and Lester and Hammel going to the Cubs.

From a prospect standpoint, the deal was considered awfully aggressive by the A's at the time, since Russell was the club's top prospect and the game's No. 11 overall prospect at the time. That's the life of deciding to go for it when you think the window for a World Series title is closing. With the Cubs, Russell moved to Double-A Tennessee, where he hit 12 homers and put up an .858 OPS last season. He spent only 11 games with Triple-A Iowa to start 2015 before being sent to the Majors in late April. He's put together a .237/.305/.364 line with six homers and 25 RBIs in 83 games so far, and on the strength of some good defense at second base, the 21-year-old has put together a 1.4 WAR per Fangraphs (fWAR) this season. That's just short of the 1.7 fWAR Samardzija (2.0) and Hammel (-0.3) put together in their half-seasons in Oakland. 

McKinney, who wasn't in MLB.com's top 100 at the start of the season, is now baseball's No. 41 overall prospect with a solid season (.299/.369/.451, six homers, 47/38 K/BB) between Class A Advanced Myrtle Beach and Double-A Tennessee. He's considered the No. 10 outfield prospect in baseball and could be slated for a 2016 Major League debut. 

Right-handed starter Dan Straily, the third piece of the Cubs' return, was traded to the Astros with Luis Valbuena for center fielder Dexter Fowler during the offseason. 

Verdict: One year out, the Cubs look like they've got the advantage. You can't fault the A's for trying to get immediate help for what could have been a nice playoff run, but once they lost before the Division Series, they had no chance of winning this deal. But by losing Russell, they mortgaged their future to make it happen, and the Cubs are already reaping the rewards and could continue to do so if McKinney's potential proves to be as real as Russell's.

Major League headliner: Andrew Miller (Orioles)
Major prospect: Eduardo Rodriguez (Red Sox)
Impact: This one was fairly cut-and-dry at the time. The Orioles were sending a one-time top prospect out for what was going to be a rental of arguably the game's best left-handed reliever. Indeed, Miller was everything the O's hoped he would be, posting a 1.35 ERA with a 34-to-4 K/BB ratio in 20 innings down the stretch and allowed just one hit and one walk in 7 1/3 playoff innings between the ALDS and ALCS. Those numbers helped him a seal a four-year, $36 million contract with the Yankees in the offseason.

With a 4.79 ERA in 16 starts, Rodriguez was struggling at Double-A Bowie at the time of the trade but found new life at Portland, where he had a 0.96 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 37 1/3 innings following the deal. He made his Triple-A debut during the 2014 postseason and made eight starts for Pawtucket this season before a move to the Majors. The 22-year-old left-hander is 6-3 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 11 Major League starts this season. Despite some issues with tipping his pitches, he has been one of the lone bright pitching spots for Boston this season, given his performance and potential.

Verdict: Advantage Red Sox. Rodriguez has been worth 0.6 fWAR this season, 0.3 less than Miller was during his short stint with the Orioles. Baltimore rolled the dice that Rodriguez might never come good in their pursuit of a title. Even if he doesn't throw another pitch, the trade would be pretty much equal. But with a promising future still ahead of Rodriguez, it looks like the Red Sox will get the most value in this swap.

Major League headliner: Jake Peavy (Giants)
Major prospects: Edwin Escobar (Red Sox), Heath Hembree (Red Sox)
Impact: Lest we get caught in trades that don't result in trophies, we turn to the Giants here. In need of rotation help, San Francisco turned to the veteran right-hander Peavy, who had been struggling for Boston with a 4.72 ERA through 20 starts. As was the case with Rodriguez at Double-A, the then-33-year-old immediately responded to the change of scenery, going 6-4 with a 2.17 ERA and 1.5 fWAR over 12 starts down the stretch. He made four postseason starts for the Giants, although he struggled (nine earned runs in 6 1/3 innings) in both of his World Series outings. After capturing his second ring in as many years, he became a free agent at season's end and signed a two-year, $24 million to return to San Francisco.

Escobar was considered the No. 75 prospect in baseball at the time of the deal but has fallen all the way to No. 26 in Boston's system after missing the first two months of the season due to elbow inflammation and being moved to the bullpen. He's allowed 16 runs (15 earned) on 22 hits and eight walks in 15 2/3 innings with Triple-A Pawtucket. Hembree has been more reliable with the PawSox (1.78 ERA, 25 strikeouts, four walks in 25 1/3 innings) but has struggled in four Major League appearances, giving up six earned runs and eight hits over 6 1/3 innings, and doesn't look to be in the club's long-term bullpen plans. Both players are still on Boston's 40-man roster.

Verdict: Advantage Giants. Despite his World Series struggles, Peavy helped the Giants achieve their ultimate aims, and though we shouldn't include his post-2014 production in the evaluation of the trade on its own merits, there's little doubt that Peavy's time in San Francisco helped him re-sign with the club. Meanwhile at this juncture, it'll take plenty of work yet for Escobar and Hembree to even combine to match Peavy's 1.5 fWAR with the Giants.

Major League headliner: Martin Prado (Yankees)
Major prospect: Peter O'Brien (D-backs)
Impact: The Yankees needed help at second and in the outfield and found both in Prado, who also featured some at third despite the addition of Chase Headley. Prado thrived in the Bronx, hitting .316 with seven homers and an .877 OPS in 37 games for the Yanks, but that wasn't enough to put New York in the playoffs as it finished four games behind the A's for the second Wild Card spot. Prado became a trade piece himself in December when he was shipped to the Marlins along with David Phelps for Garrett Jones, Nathan Eovaldi and Minor Leaguer Domingo German. 

With 33 homers in 102 games between Class A Advanced Tampa and Double-A Trenton, O'Brien was in the middle of the Minor League home run title hunt at the time of the trade on July 31. He played in only four games for Double-A Mobile before getting hurt and then spent time in the Arizona Fall League to make up the time. In 97 games with Triple-A Reno this season, he's produced a .273/.320/.514 line with 18 homers, four triples, 25 doubles and 72 RBIs. The 25-year-old has made the full-time move from catcher to outfield and sits at No. 9 in the D-backs' system. He's yet to make his Major League debut.

Verdict: To be determined. This is an exercise in proving that sometimes trades need more than a year to get an accurate evaluation. O'Brien's a decent bet to make the Majors at some point, but without a spot on the 40-man roster, there's no guarantee that could happen this year. There's also no guarantee -- especially given his contact and walk rate issues -- that he'd match Prado's 1.4 fWAR with the Yankees a season ago. Even then, this gets more complicated in that Prado provided more value to the organization as a trade chip that helped bring in Eovaldi (2.1 WAR this season). It might take us a few years to see if O'Brien shakes out as a Major League power bat or Quad-A player to determine who won this one.

Major League headliners: David Price (Tigers), Austin Jackson (Mariners), Drew Smyly (Rays)
Major prospects: Nick Franklin (Rays), Willy Adames (Rays)
Verdict: We're not totally kidding ourselves in calling this anything but the Price trade, but Jackson and Smyly deserve their inclusion above. That being said, we'll look at this exclusively through the lens of the Rays, who gave up a year-plus of control on Price for three young pieces.

If you've followed baseball in the last year, you know that Price has been pretty good since joining Detroit. In 32 starts with the Tigers, he's gone 13-8 with a 2.90 ERA, 220 strikeouts and 44 walks in 223 2/3 innings. That's good for a 5.7 fWAR over what's essentially been a full season in Detroit. 

Unfortunately for the Rays, their Price replacement in Smyly suffered a torn labrum in early May and hasn't pitched since. Because of that, he's put together just a 1.3 fWAR since joining Tampa Bay (1.2 of which came at the end of last season). Franklin hasn't done much to come good either by hitting .139 in 28 games during a month-long term with the Rays between May and June -- during which he was worth -0.8 fWAR -- and is now at Triple-A Durham, where he's hitting .259 with a .795 OPS in 33 games. Depending on Smyly's ability to come back from his shoulder issues, the Rays' best chance to take something from value from last year's deal might be Adames -- the club's top prospect. The 19-year-old shortstop has a .262/.342/.396 line with four homers, six triples and 20 doubles in 88 games at Class A Advanced Dunedin and, thanks to his impressive defense, is considered the No. 44 prospect in baseball. There's still lots of development left in his game, but he should be considered Tampa Bay's future at shortstop.

Verdict: Advantage Tigers. For now. If Adames becomes an All-Star shortstop or Smyly returns to form after his injury, we can revisit this. But the Tigers gained an advantage here by flipping Price for three Blue Jays left-handed prospects, including No. 25 overall prospect Daniel Norris, who should be a big part of Detroit's future rotation plans. For those keeping score at home, that's one year of a very good Price and Daniel Norris-plus for Austin Jackson, Smyly and Adames. Right now, the former package looks more enticing.