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Toolshed: What we learned in 2015

Year of the Prospect, service time, youngsters stick out in exciting year
September 25, 2015

The Toolshed focuses on some of the more interesting prospect-centered storylines of the 2015 season. Have ideas, feedback or questions for Sam? Email him or tweet him @SamDykstraMiLB.

The end is here. We've faced the final curtain

Yes, with Fresno's 7-0 win over Columbus in the Triple-A National Championship Game on Tuesday, the 2015 Minor League Baseball season officially came to a close -- as did the first Summer of Toolsheds (copyright pending) -- and lo, what a season it was! On Opening Day alone, we saw a cycle, a triple play and a no-hitter in the Minors, and in that last game, we saw a pitcher in Chris Devenski take a perfect game into the sixth during his first Triple-A start -- with a ring on the line. In between, there were promotions -- so many promotions -- tape-measure home runs, triple-digit heaters, an 18-game winning streak, a tie that ended an 18-game winning streak, a player missing home plate after a homer and a new Minor League Home Run King

You could spend weeks upon weeks dissecting exactly what happened these past four months -- and indeed, we shall do just that with MiLBYs and Organization All-Stars coming down the pike -- but sometimes, it's best to analyze things while they're still fresh. This is an attempt to do that. Here's what I learned over the course of the 2015 season:

1. It was undeniably the Year of the Prospect

It started with Kris Bryant (we'll touch on him again later). Then came Noah Syndergaard, Carlos Correa, Francisco Lindor, Joey Gallo, Byron Buxton, Steven Matz, Addison Russell and Miguel Sano. Later, Kyle Schwarber, Luis Severino, Jon Gray, Henry Owens, Michael Conforto and Trea Turner joined the party. In September, top-100 prospects like Corey Seager, Max Kepler and Frankie Montas came up for their Major League debuts.

If that was exhausting to read, blame Major League organizations, who did not shy away from giving "the kids" their shot at The Show this season. (If it does not feel exhaustive, it's because there were almost too many good prospects promoted to the Majors this season to count.) And, boy, did the kids respond.

As of Thursday, the 2015 Major League rookie class had put together a collective 76.4 WAR, according to FanGraphs. That's the best ever, and it's not even close. Moving into the second spot is the Class of 1987 -- one that had Greg Maddux, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez, Bo Jackson and Ken Caminiti among others -- at 49.4. Put another way: before 2015, no rookie class had cracked a collective 50 WAR. The 2015 rookies have sailed past that number by 50 percent. 

The follow-up to that, of course, is "why?" Why this class? Why this year? We'll dig a little deeper into this in a later Toolshed during this offseason. But here are a couple quick things to ruminate upon until then. We knew a lot of these players would be really good, especially Bryant, Correa and Lindor, and they proved that could be really good right away. Organizations, such as the Cubs, seem more willing to lean on youngsters because they are cheaper. The gulf between Triple-A and the Majors (and even Double-A and the Majors) may not be as big as we thought as recently as earlier this year.

2. Fans are becoming more knowledgeable when it comes to service time

This is when we return to Bryant. As you'll recall back in the spring, the Cubs were being derided for keeping their top prospect in Triple-A when it was obvious he was ready to be the club's Opening Day starting third baseman. The reason for the decision was that the Cubs were gaining an extra year of player control by keeping Bryant out of the Majors. You can agree with the move or not -- frankly, it only makes sense if you're concerned about the Cubs' financials going forward -- but if anything came out of it, it's that fans should better understand the process going forward. The same goes for the Super Two cutoff, which saw players like Correa and Lindor have to wait until early June to get their calls in order to delay their arbitration clocks.

This whole season has been an education in the collective bargaining agreement for fans. Maybe this is optimistic, but the days of screaming, "Call him up!" every time a prospect does well might be coming to a quieter end because of that better understanding -- that is, until the next CBA.

3. Age is just a number

Yes, this is true about the Majors, but here, I wanted to focus more on the much-lower levels. The poster boy for this is Julio Urias, who reached Triple-A in a year in which he was 18 for most of it. As a top-10 overall prospect when the season started, we knew Urias was going to be good, even if he felt like an outlier.

This is more about the other youngsters who thrived in seasons when they could have very well just been coming out of high school. Rafael Devers, Gleyber Torres and Ozhaino Albies each held their own at Class A, despite being only 18, and are each now ranked among MLB.com's top 31 overall prospects as a result. Dig even deeper, and you'll find Anderson Espinoza moving stateside (and even as high as Class A) as a 17-year-old in his first pro season. To be honest, with Albies in particular, I was down on the Braves shortstop entering this season, thinking that a full-season circuit would be tough on a teenager with little power. Instead, he used his plus hit tool and speed to bat .310 with 29 steals in 98 games for Rome. 

My takeaway, as well as yours, should be: tools play, regardless of age.

4. Patience is required

The study of prospects -- prospectology, if you will -- can be a binary process. Guys either have it or they don't. So sometimes, the community is quick to jump on Minor Leaguers who aren't quite performing up to expectations.

The classic case of that was Red Sox top prospect Yoan Moncada, who had the weight of Red Sox Nation on his back after inking a $31.5 million signing bonus in the spring. The Sox didn't allow the Cuban sensation to make his pro debut with Class A Greenville until May 18, and even then, he was hitting just .229 with a .632 OPS entering July. Time to be worried about the investment, right? Wrong. Moncada produced a .310/.415/.500 line with seven homers and 45 steals in 56 games over the second half, and by late August, there were questions about why he wasn't getting moved to Class A Advanced Salem. Relax. The whole year was about acclimation to stateside ball, and since that's happened, the 20-year-old, switch-hitting second baseman is shining like we thought he would when he signed. Let this be a reminder that if the numbers don't match the reports, give it some time. 

Some other top-100 prospects that turned rough first halfs into positive seconds: Jesse Winker, Dominic Smith, Hunter Renfroe, Franklin Barreto.

5. Quick hits

  • The Triple-A and Double-A pitch clocks, one of the bigger Minor League storylines coming into the season, didn't have any unintended consequences on how the game was played. Again, more on this in a future Toolshed this offseason, but the average gametime for a nine-inning game in the Minors went down from 2:49 in 2014 to 2:43 this season. In the International League alone, it went from 2:56 to 2:40. 
  • Despite the graduation of Correa, the Astros' system is only getting stronger. A.J. Reed was arguably the Minors' best hitter while Michael Feliz, Francis Martes, Derek Fisher, Joe Musgrove, Colin Moran, Tony Kemp and Devenski all thrived as well. Add in that three of the organization's top four prospects (Alex Bregman, Daz Cameron, Kyle Tucker) were only drafted this year and have yet to play a full season, and you have the formula for long-term success.
  • As always, prepare to be surprised. You may have thought Blake Snell and Lewis Brinson were good players at the start of 2015, but it's OK to be taken aback by the way they performed over the course of the past couple months. As much as we study previous stats and scouting reports, baseball can still be unpredictable, and that's what makes us come back for more.

Sam Dykstra is a contributor to MiLB.com. Follow and interact with him on Twitter, @SamDykstraMiLB.