Prospect Projections: AL Central rookies

Bring on Byron Buxton.

Of course, MLB.com's top prospect already made his Major League debut last June 14. But 2016 feels and looks like the season in which arguably the game's most exciting prospect will hit the big time. 

As has long been noted, Buxton's last two seasons have been ones of fits and starts. The 2012 second overall pick was limited to 31 games in 2014 by wrist injuries and a concussion. He was luckier to stay on the field more last year and certainly looked like his promising young self by hitting .305/.367/.500 with seven homers, 13 triples, 10 doubles and 22 steals in 72 games between Double-A Chattanooga and Triple-A Rochester. 

But in the so-proclaimed "Year of the Prospect," Buxton was one of the few who found it tough to thrive at the game's highest level. Then 21, the center fielder produced a .209/.250/.326 line while striking out in 31.9 percent of his 138 big league plate appearances.

For what it's worth, the Twins didn't seem worried.

"First and foremost, the thing with Byron was getting back on the field and getting the rust off," Twins director of Minor League operations Brad Steil told MiLB.com for the Organization All-Stars series. "Because of the way last year went, he started slow at the beginning, but he showed everyone how quickly he can make a transition. He really started to hit in Double-A and played well enough to get the opportunity at the Majors. He got his feet wet and struggled here at times, but that's part of the development process. I think the big jump for him was going from missing almost all last season after getting hurt midway to playing a lot again. He held his own, and it's something he'll build on."

The Twins doubled down on those statements by trading outfielder Aaron Hicks to the Yankees for catcher John Ryan Murphy, thus clearing the center field position for Buxton. The Steamer600 projection system, explained two weeks ago in the Prospect Projections opener on AL East rookies, also backs Buxton to bring his whole set of tools to the Majors, albeit in a somewhat muted manner.

Given 600 plate appearances in the Majors in 2016, Buxton is projected to put up a .258/.309/.398 line with 13 homers, seven triples, 23 doubles and 25 steals. That'd put him at a 1.7 WAR that would rank fourth among Minnesota position players behind Miguel Sano (3.3), Brian Dozier (2.3) and Murphy (2.1). That'd be a solid age-22 and rookie season for the player MLB.com ranks as tops in the game, and that WAR figure could go even higher if he lives up to his defensive potential.

 Minnesota Twins

Most ready: Buxton gets the headlines as arguably the game's top prospect, but it's Berrios who Steamer believes will make the biggest impact in 2016. The Twins' No. 2 prospect arguably should have made his Major League debut last season, when he posted a 2.87 ERA with 175 strikeouts and 38 walks over 166 1/3 innings at the Minors' two highest levels. Instead, the 21-year-old right-hander had to wait until this season to crack The Show, and when he does, the projections believe Berrios won't just make the transition seamlessly but will become the Twins' best starting pitcher upon arrival. His projected 2.8 WAR over 200 innings is the highest among all of the team's starters.

Give it time: Max Kepler was the Twins' breakout star in 2015 as he climbed from Class A Advanced to the Majors with a Southern League MVP award and .322/.416/.531 line in the Minors. Somewhat surprisingly, Steamer isn't high on Kepler, pegging him just above replacement level, but a lot of that has to do with the numbers Kepler put up in previous years. Steamer would like to see him show that 2015 was no fluke before it gives him an impressive projection. No matter, the 22-year-old from Germany will get a chance to do just that, likely starting at Triple-A Rochester this spring.

Wild card: Taylor Rogers has been solid, if unspectacular, at virtually every stop since he was taken in the 11th round of the 2012 Draft out of the University of Kentucky. The 25-year-old southpaw showed impressive control and durability last year when he posted a 3.98 ERA and 2.3 BB/9 over 174 innings at Rochester before adding 25 frames in the Arizona Fall League. Could that mean Minnesota is his next stop? Rogers was added to the 40-man roster in November but is more likely to head back to the International League, where he'll act as injury insurance until he can bust down the door.

Top-100 talent: Nick Gordon spent his first full season with Class A Cedar Rapids, hitting .277 with a .696 OPS and 25 steals in 120 games and remains almost three season from even sniffing the Majors. Tyler Jay, who did not receive a Steamer projection, made 19 appearances at Class A Advanced Fort Myers after being taken sixth overall in the 2015 Draft, but they were all out of the bullpen. He'll move into a starting role this season. Jorge Polanco has appeared in the Majors each of the last two seasons, but the 22-year-old shortstop is still looking at a move to Triple-A, at least to begin 2016.

 Chicago White Sox

Most ready: The White Sox prospect pool took a bit of a beating following the departures of Micah Johnson, Frankie Montas and Trayce Thompson in the three-team deal for Todd Frazier. Of those who remain, Steamer has perhaps the highest immediate hopes for top prospect Tim Anderson. The 22-year-old shortstop hit .312 with 49 steals in a full season at Double-A Birmingham in 2015, and the projection system thinks he could make an impact right now in the Majors, specifically on the basepaths. With the departure of Alexei Ramirez to the Padres in free agency, Chicago looks like it'll use placeholders Tyler Saladino or Leury Garcia at shortstop until Anderson proves himself ready at Triple-A Charlotte.

Give it time: If you didn't know that Courtney Hawkins needs more time before he can crack the Majors, let this serve as a reminder. The 2012 first-rounder hasn't been able to put it together offensively quite yet, although he made some strides at Birmingham (.243/.300/.410, nine homers in 78 games) in an injury-riddled campaign. Steamer likes his power potential, but he'll focus on cutting down his strikeouts and raising his average during a likely return to Double-A.

Wild card: Teams had their chance to take Onelki Garcia in December in the Rule 5 Draft. Instead, the 26-year-old right-hander stays off Chicago's 40-man roster. Still, his projections make him look like a solid reliever, specifically the 9.4 K/9. Garcia still needs to work on his control to return to the Majors for the first time since 2013 with the Dodgers.

Top-100 talent: As a 2015 first-rounder with only 23 professional innings under his belt, Carson Fulmer did not receive a Steamer600 projection. However, the Vanderbilt product, MLB.com's No. 42 overall prospect, could be on the fast track, similar to Chris Sale and Carlos Rodon. Those were special cases though, and it's more likely that Fulmer finds his professional footing early at Double-A with an eye on a September promotion or an early 2017 call.

 Cleveland Indians

Most ready: There are players with higher WARs in the above tables, but Shawn Armstrong looks ready to contribute as a right-hander out of Cleveland's bullpen. The 2011 18th-rounder showed he has nothing left to prove at Triple-A Columbus, posting a 2.36 ERA with 80 strikeouts over 49 2/3 innings and passing limited Major League tests during a promotion last September. With a Steamer-projected 3.21 ERA and 10.7 K/9, he shouldn't have a problem taking on middle relief or even setup duties for the Tribe in his age-25 season.

Give it time: Bradley Zimmer improved his stock big-time last season, flashing good power (16 homers) and speed (44 steals) at Class A Advanced and Double-A. He played through a hairline fracture in his right foot during the second half, and the injury hurt his numbers with Akron, which hurt his Steamer projections. Still, a healthy and productive Zimmer should be on course for a second-half Major League debut. 

Wild cards: Based on their Steamer projections alone, Yandy Diaz and Adam Plutko should make for interesting Major League options after breakout 2015 seasons. (Diaz hit .315/.412/.408 with a 65/78 K/BB ratio at Akron, while Plutko posted a 2.39 ERA and 0.93 WHIP at Akron and Class A Advanced Lynchburg.) But neither is on the 40-man roster, nor did either received an invitation to Spring Training. It'll take a replication of their 2015 numbers at the upper levels to get serious looks and make those Steamer projections realities.

Top-100 talent: Clint Frazier could bring his incredible bat speed to the Majors some day and do a lot of damage, but with just one impressive season of Class A Advanced ball under his belt, that chance isn't coming for at least another season. Rob Kaminsky looked like a steal from the Cardinals for a struggling Brandon Moss at the time of his trade last July. The 21-year-old left-hander has yet to play at the Double-A level and likely will join Frazier in Akron to start 2016 with his eye on the Majors for 2017.

 Detroit Tigers

Most ready: Michael Fulmer came to the Tigers in the Yoenis Cespedes trade at a good time as he was en route to being named the Eastern League Pitcher of the Year with a 2.14 ERA and 116 strikeouts over 117 2/3 innings. Steamer certainly shines on numbers like those and pegs him to be the Tigers' fourth-best starting option right now, ahead of even Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd, who have big league experience. Fulmer was added to the 40-man roster in November and will be part of the rotation discussion this spring, even if an early-season assignment to Triple-A Toledo is more likely.

Give it time: Continuing on the theme, JaCoby Jones came from the Pirates for reliever Joakim Soria at last year's deadline, and Steamer likes his power-speed combo coming off a 16-homer, 25-steal season. But this category is quite literal in that Jones will serve a 50-game suspension following a second positive test for a drug of abuse. He'll give Detroit its first spring look as a non-roster invitee next month, and a move to third base, where he played in the AFL, could be in the cards.

Wild card: Steven Moya made his Major League debut in 2014, but his struggles to make contact at Toledo kept him from making any considerable contribution to the Tigers last season. The 24-year-old outfielder hit 20 homers with the Mud Hens but struck out 162 times in 500 at-bats and hit .240 in the International League. Despite his considerable power, Moya isn't projected to be anything more than replacement-level in the Majors. And if that's the case, he'll enter the Quad-A player category. 

Top-100 talent: Fulmer is the Tigers' only prospect ranked among MLB.com's top 100.

 Kansas City Royals

Most ready: The World Series champions left Balbino Fuenmayor unprotected ahead of the Rule 5 Draft and have to be somewhat thankful he wasn't taken. The 26-year-old first baseman enjoyed a breakout 2015 campaign, hitting .358/.384/.589 with 17 homers in 89 games between Double-A Northwest Arkansas and Triple-A Omaha before undergoing knee surgery in July. Steamer loves that level of production in the high Minors and has Fuenmayor pegged for a 2.1 WAR if he were to play the whole season in the Majors. Without a spot on the 40-man roster, he's earned an invitation to Spring Training, where he'll get the chance to show Kansas City just how ready he is, should Eric Hosmer or Kendrys Morales go down.

Give it time: Raul Mondesi made history last October when he became the first player to make his Major League debut in the World Series. That fact might have gotten some Royals fans excited, but Steamer makes a pretty good case that the 20-year-old shortstop, who hit .243 with a .651 OPS and 19 steals at Double-A in 2015, is at least a season away from being a big league regular. With Gold Glover Alcides Escobar holding down short for now, Kansas City shouldn't rush Mondesi in non-emergency situations.

Wild card: Bubba Starling hasn't lived up to the expectations of his $7.5 million signing bonus since going pro in 2011, but in many ways, he had his best offensive season in 2015, putting up a .785 OPS with 39 extra-base hits at Class A Advanced Wilmington and Double-A Northwest Arkansas before a solid AFL turn. As a reward, he was added to the 40-man in November. Defense has always been Starling's calling card, but Steamer would still like to see another good offensive season out of him before deeming him Major League-ready. The re-signing of Alex Gordon should give Starling more time to develop.

Top-100 talent: Kyle Zimmer has battled a series of injuries during four seasons in the Minors, but Steamer600 doesn't pay attention to that. The projection system actually pits the 24-year-old right-hander (2.5 WAR) as the Royals' second-best starter behind Yordano Ventura (3.2) -- even better than $70 million free agent Ian Kennedy (2.1) -- if he can pitch 200 innings in a season. As things stand, Kansas City will want MLB.com's No. 95 overall prospect to prove his health in the spring and at the upper levels of the Minors before even considering him for a rotation spot.