Toolshed: 2016 MLB Draft preview

The Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft is almost upon us, meaning the hopes and dreams of about 1,200 amateur baseball players are about to be realized. 

Of course, it's not entirely that simple. Drafted players don't have to sign, and in fact, many don't with most of those being high-schoolers who choose to head to college, where they hope to improve their stock before becoming Draft eligible after their junior seasons (unless they go to junior college, in which case they can be drafted again the next year). There are 42 rounds, including two compensation rounds (one at the end of the first round, the other at the end of the second), the order of which has been determined by lottery. Unlike the NBA, NFL or NHL draft, picks cannot be traded, except for those in the lottery rounds. Then, there's the issue of Draft pools. Each pick in the first 10 rounds is given an allotted bonus slot. Add up an organization's collective bonus slots, and you get its bonus pool. Clubs can go above or below the allotted bonus for any given pick, but that affects how much of their pool they have to play with for the remainder of their picks. 

In other words, there's enough going on to make your head spin. In an effort to make things a little easier, here are some of the players to watch and storylines to follow in this year's Draft, which will kick off Thursday night at 7 p.m. ET. Rounds 3-10 will be Friday, and the 30 remaining rounds follow Saturday. The complete Draft order can be found here.

Players to know

LHP A.J. Puk, University of Florida junior: There's no consensus No. 1 in this Draft class, but Puk might be as close as it gets. The 6-foot-7 left-hander has been consistently tied to the Phillies at the first overall pick, and for good reason. He's got a high-90s fastball and an above-average slider, giving him two plus pitches with an average changeup. Those offerings helped him strike out 95 batters in 70 innings with the Gators, but his control hurt him at times as he averaged 4.0 BB/9, leading to a solid but not spectacular 3.21 ERA. He allowed five runs (four earned) on five hits in 4 1/3 innings against Connecticut in his last start, which could be a cause for a concern. But given Puk's stuff from the left side, it's almost impossible to think he will slip past the Phillies, Reds or Braves in the top three.

OF Corey Ray, Louisville junior: If you're looking for this year's version of Andrew Benintendi, Ray might be it. The Louisville center fielder hit .319/.396/.562 with 15 homers and 44 steals in 62 games for the Cardinals and was a standout last summer with the 2015 USA Collegiate National Team. He's got the speed to stick in center and the skill set to hit the ground running in pro ball. Most mock drafts have him going in the top 10, but ESPN.com's Keith Law has him as the Draft's No. 1 overall prospect. It could be interesting to see if any of the clubs with a top-five pick agrees.

OF Kyle Lewis, Mercer junior: Unlike Puk and Ray, Lewis wasn't even drafted out of high school but has surged to near the top of Draft boards with two standout seasons at Mercer. He's got some momentum behind him after being named Baseball America's College Player of the Year, an award won by Benintendi, A.J. Reed and Kris Bryant the past three seasons. Lewis captured the award with a .395/.535/.731 line with 20 homers, 72 RBIs and 66 walks (vs. 48 strikeouts) in 61 games for the Bears. He may not have the same potential for speed as Ray (and therefore might not be as likely to stick in center), but there isn't an organization that wouldn't like to plug his pop and strike-zone discipline into their farm system. He could be an option for either the Reds at No. 2 or Braves at No. 3, and there were reports earlier in the week that Atlanta had worked out the local slugger in preparation to take him.

OF Mickey Moniak, La Costa Canyon (Calif.) High School senior: If organizations prefer a high school bat whose tools aren't currently as loud as the outfielders above but is younger and has an equally high ceiling, they'll take a long look at Moniak, who made a big jump in the past year. The 18-year-old UCLA commit is expected to be an excellent defender in center with little doubt he'll stick there and has shown a plus bat against quality competition. His power isn't as high as Ray's or Lewis', but he could grow into some pop in the coming years. Moniak has been mentioned as high as No. 1 with the Phillies by Baseball America (where he could save Philadelphia some money for later picks), and MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo also listed him under the "favorites" category in his column handicapping the first pick. But Law has Moniak dropping to as low as No. 12 with the Red Sox in his latest mock, making him a bit of a wild card entering Thursday's first round.

Storylines to follow

Jason Groome vs. Riley Pint: This pair of high-school hurlers are ranked No. 1 and 2, respectively, in MLB.com's ranking of the top 200 Draft prospects, but it's unclear who will come off the board first. Pint, a right-hander from Kansas, has a four-pitch mix with his fastball (70), curve (60) and changeup (60) each grading out as plus offerings on the 20-80 scale but has received knocks for his inconsistent delivery and control. Groome has a 65-grade fastball and 60-grade curve, per MLB.com, with the added bonus of being a 6-foot-6 left-hander who is only 17 years old, but scouts didn't get as many looks at him after he was controversially ruled ineligible for violating a transfer rule by moving back to his home in New Jersey from the IMG Academy in Florida. Both make for interesting arms and could be in the discussion for first overall in perhaps another year, but we'll only get to see whose name comes first Thursday night. (Note: There are reports that Groome might forego his commitment to Vanderbilt and go to a junior college to become Draft eligible for 2017 if he doesn't get his desired signing bonus.)

How will Reds, Padres handle picks? The Astros played the Draft perfectly in 2015, using their bonus pool wisely and grabbing (and later signing) Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Daz Cameron in the first 37 picks. No one has quite the same situation as Houston, which had two top-five picks last season, this time around, but the Reds and Padres are both well-positioned to get creative. The Reds have the largest signing pool at $13,923,700 after winning the first pick in the first lottery round, beating out even the Phillies at $13,405,200, and own three picks in the first 43. The Padres have the third-highest bonus and will pick at 8, 24 and 25 with the latter two coming as compensation for losing Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy to free agency. Both organizations are in a good situation to pick up and sign a promising player who is dropping because of signability concerns, a la Cameron in 2015.

How high will Justin Dunn rise? The right-handed Boston College junior always had the stuff to look like a potential starter in the pros but was used out of the bullpen until April. He finished with a 1.79 ERA, 66 strikeouts and 16 walks in 60 1/3 innings for the Eagles and started to rocket up boards as he thrived in a starting role. In MLB.com's last ranking update, the site pegged him as the Draft's No. 29 prospect, but he's gained enough fuel to move into the middle of the first round in several mocks. The move to a starting role could be a very rich one for Dunn come Thursday.

How far will Delvin Perez slide? No one doubts the 17-year-old Puerto Rican shortstop's skills. Perez is considered to be an especially gifted defender at the premium position and has earned positive reviews for his speed -- all things organizations crave in a cornerstone shortstop. But MLB.com's No. 9 Draft prospect has slid in recent mocks -- Baseball America didn't even have him in the first round in its latest update -- and on Tuesday we found out why when Jon Heyman reported that Perez had failed a drug test. Will that (along with other character concerns) be enough to knock Perez out of the first 20 picks, or will one organization look past the negatives and call his name early Thursday? Stay tuned.