Toolshed: Reviewing the 2015 deadline

Trade deadlines come with a lot of instant analysis. Winners and losers are often declared as soon as the deadline passes. Grades are dished out. Organizational philosophies are scrutinized. That's all well and good. Of course, there's justification in judging trades based on the current market.

When dealing with prospects, however, it's important to remember that trades are often done with the long term in mind. It may look bad to trade a top-100 prospect for a reliever now, but if that prospect never works out for the new club down the line, the trade looks better with age for the club acquiring that bullpen piece. With that in mind, let's look back on the 2015 trade deadline and see where things stand for a few of last season's major deals.

Major League headliner: Cole Hamels (Rangers)
Major prospect haul: Jake Thompson, Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro, Jerad Eickhoff, Alec Asher (Phillies)

Impact: Hamels was the subject of constant trade rumors throughout the 2015 season while with the cellar-dwelling Phillies, but those rumors always involved Philadelphia asking for a king's ransom in return for the All-Star left-hander. The Rangers, who owned a 50-52 record at the time of the deal, decided they would be the ones to pay it with a package based around three top-100 prospects in Thompson, Williams and Alfaro and two upper-level arms in Eickhoff and Asher. (Philadelphia also picked up Major League reliever Matt Harrison, who has yet to appear in a Phillies uniform of any kind due to a back injury.)

The deal has worked out well for the Rangers. Hamels went 7-1 with a 3.66 ERA in 12 starts over the final two months of the season, helping Texas storm back to an American League West division crown, and made a pair of starts in the ALDS. With Yu Darvish spending most of this season on the disabled list, Hamels has been the Rangers' most valuable pitcher, going 11-2 with a 2.87 ERA in 20 starts and receiving his first All-Star honor since 2012. The Rangers once again find themselves locked in a battle for the AL West, and if these two runs at a pennant aren't enough, Hamels is signed through 2018 with a $20 million club option for 2019.

On the Phillies' side, Thompson, Williams and Alfaro remain exciting prospects and have been a big part of a system that MiLB.com ranked as the seventh-best in the game before the season began. Thompson, in particular, looks ready for the Major Leagues with a 2.29 ERA in 19 Triple-A starts while the other two look like solid options for 2017.

Those prospects aside, it's actually Eickhoff who's brought back the best return so far. His 3.2 WAR at the Major League level, according to FanGraphs, actually trumps Hamels' 2.9, and at a fraction of the price. He's unlikely to turn into an ace, but he's become a main cog of what will be a young Phillies rotation for years to come potentially.

Verdict: Everyone got what they wanted here. The Rangers have a steady top-of-the-rotation starter who has helped put them in a position to compete in each of the last two seasons. The Phillies got the pieces needed to start a quality rebuild. If Eickhoff stays on his current track and either Thompson, Williams or Alfaro turns into an impact Major Leaguer, history will smile more brightly on the Phillies' side in this deal, given the low cost and years of control, but that's the price the Rangers had to pay to contend in the market.

Major League headliner: Yoenis Cespedes (Mets)
Major prospect haul: Michael Fulmer, Luis Cessa (Tigers)

Impact: Another trade that seems to have worked out for both sides. Seven months after acquiring Cespedes from the Red Sox, the Tigers flipped the outfielder to the Mets at the deadline before he was set to become a free agent the following offseason. Cespedes went on to be one of the Majors' best second-half sluggers with 17 homers and a .942 OPS in 57 regular-season games. With his help (and Daniel Murphy and a killer rotation), the Mets made their first World Series since 2015 -- the ultimate goal when trading for essentially a rental at the time.

On the other side, Fulmer was in the midst of a breakout season at Double-A at the time of the trade. He was eventually named Eastern League Pitcher of the Year after posting a 2.14 ERA with 116 strikeouts and 30 walks in 117 2/3 innings between Double-A Binghamton and Erie. He was named the Tigers' top prospect last offseason and didn't last long at Triple-A Toledo, making the Majors on April 29. He's since become a leading contender for AL Rookie of the Year, going 9-2 with a 2.41 ERA in 15 starts for Detroit. The 23-year-old right-hander has been better lately than even those numbers would suggest with a 7-1 record and 1.28 ERA in 11 starts since May 21.

Cessa was flipped to the Yankees last offseason in the deal that sent left-handed reliever Justin Wilson to the Tigers and has split his season between New York and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

Verdict: This trade is tougher to parse than it would initially seem. On one hand, Cespedes exceeded expectations last year with the Mets, a club that got within three wins of a championship. On the other, the Tigers picked up a future leader in their rotation for a guy who was probably going to leave in the offseason. But here's where it gets complicated: Cespedes became more than a rental when he signed back with the Mets on a three-year, $75 million deal with a one-year opt-out. The Mets might have thought they were paying for just a few months of Cespedes, but thanks in part to their 2015 success, they were able to convince him to stay. The Tigers will still likely get more value from their side of the deal in Fulmer over the long term, but evaluating the trade took a turn when Cespedes signed the dotted line.

Major League headliners: Troy Tulowitzki and LaTroy Hawkins (Blue Jays), Jose Reyes (Rockies)
Major prospect haul: Jeff Hoffman, Miguel Castro, Jesus Tinoco (Rockies)

Impact: This, combined with the acquisition of David Price two days later, was the Blue Jays' signal that they were going to make a big run at a World Series title. They replaced a declining Reyes with five-time All-Star Tulowitzki. Unlike the deals described earlier, this wasn't done with a rental in mind. Tulowitzki is signed through 2020 with a club option for 2021, although those years of control don't come cheap. He is owed $20 million every year from 2015-19 and $14 million in 2020. So even as the Jays were freeing themselves from the Reyes contract (which was set to give the shortstop $44 million over its final two years in 2016-17), they were still taking on major financial commitments.

Tulowitzki didn't quite do enough to get the Blue Jays over the hump as the club fell to the Royals in the ALCS. Since he's left Coors Field, he hasn't quite set the world ablaze with his bat with a .242/.312/.424 line in 117 games for Toronto since the deal. But he's still providing some pop with 21 homers in that span, and his defense has been solid enough to earn him a 3.1 fWAR in just under a season's worth of games.

As for what the rebuilding Rockies received in return for their former franchise cornerstone, it's going to come down to Hoffman. Reyes was released this season while serving a suspension for a domestic abuse incident and ended up playing only 47 games in a Colorado uniform. Castro has bounced between the Majors and Triple-A Albuquerque since the trade but has been sub-replacement level while in the Show with a 7.20 ERA in 20 appearances for the Rockies. Tinoco has taken a step back in his development and was demoted to Class A after putting up a 14.85 ERA in four starts (13 1/3 innings) at Class A Advanced Modesto during this season's first month. The 21-year-old right-hander hasn't fared particularly well in Asheville either with a 4.88 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in nine starts (48 innings) in the South Atlantic League.

Hoffman, on the other hand, has actually improved his stock since the deal. He continues to flash a plus fastball and curve and has a good enough changeup to give him three above-average offerings. After worries about missing bats, he's got the strikeout numbers to match his stuff with a 9.3 K/9 this season at Triple-A Albuquerque. While his 3.95 ERA might seem pedestrian, that's relatively solid by Pacific Coast League standards. Most importantly, the 23-year-old right-hander has thrown a career-best 107 innings with more to come two years after he underwent Tommy John surgery. He could be a September call-up when rosters expand, but it's more likely he'll move up in early 2017 once service-time worries are dismissed, if all goes well between now and then. The Rockies are always in dire need of controllable pitching, and Hoffman remains their best pitching prospect since the graduation of Jon Gray.

Verdict: At this juncture, you'd have to give the advantage to the Blue Jays, given that they've actually gotten value out of their Major League pieces in this deal, even if Tulowitzki is just barely performing to the level of his contract. Hoffman could tip it in Colorado's favor, though, if he becomes a mainstay in its rotation for the next few years.

Quick hits

Brewers send Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers to Astros: Gomez, who is set to become a free agent this offseason, has been a disappointment this year with a .214 average and .605 OPS, and Fiers has posted a 4.69 ERA in 19 appearances. Meanwhile, Brett Phillips and Josh Hader continue to be top-100 prospects and remain two big pieces of Milwaukee's attempts to rebuild. If either fulfills his potential, this could look like a coup for Milwaukee, given Houston's disappointing return.

Astros nab Scott Kazmir from A's: The story here was Kazmir returning to his native Houston to pitch for the upstart Astros in return for catcher Jacob Nottingham and right-handed pitcher Daniel Mengden. The left-hander posted a 4.17 ERA in 13 regular-season starts and made one ALDS start for the Astros before heading to the Dodgers in free agency. Mengden, meanwhile, has shot up from Class A Advanced to make nine starts for Oakland this summer. In a rough turn for Houston, his 0.5 fWAR with the A's is already greater than the 0.1 fWAR Kazmir put up in his short time with the Astros. Nottingham didn't last long with the A's and was flipped as the major prospect in a deal for outfielder Khris Davis last February. He's since seen his stock drop some due to a .236 average and .635 OPS at Double-A Biloxi. Overall, the A's did well to get something for a pitcher who was a foot out the door anyways.

Royals get Johnny Cueto from Reds: No matter how we splice this deal, the Royals are going to look like winners because, well, they actually won the World Series, thanks in large part to Cueto's complete game in Game 2. It doesn't hurt that all three southpaws (John Lamb, Brandon Finnegan, Cody Reed) acquired by Cincinnati have struggled in 2016 with none posting an ERA lower than 4.93 in the Majors this season. Reed remains the one with the most promise, and as the Reds' No. 3 prospect, there's still hope he can figure it out at the Major League level. But don't expect the Royals, fresh off their trip to the White House, to lose any sleep over this one.