Toolshed Stats: Prospects getting BABIP'd

In addition to our weekly Toolshed column, every Tuesday during the first half of the offseason our new Toolshed Stats series will use advanced statistics such as ISO, FIP, Spd and park factors to better understand prospect performance during the 2016 Minor League season.

For something considered an advanced stat, BABIP (or Batting Average on Balls in Play) isn't too difficult to comprehend.

BABIP determines how often balls hit between the white lines fall in for a hit. That includes singles, doubles, triples, groundouts, lineouts, flyouts, etc., but does not include strikeouts or home runs -- each of which counts as an at-bat for batting average but are taken out here. However, sacrifice flies are included, and the result is the following formula:

BABIP = (H-HR) / (AB-K-HR+SF)

To understand its importance and what it can tell us about player performance, however, some context is required.

An average BABIP is around .300. Anything significantly above or below that mark indicates factors are involved that helped or hurt a player's batting average (or for pitchers, batting average against). For example, a BABIP higher than .300 could indicate a hitter is prone to smack hard-hit liners that aren't easily caught by a defense, or that his speed contributes to his amount of hits. It could also indicate a bit of plain luck, though this is more a factor with pitchers, who have less control over BABIPs.

The goal here is not only to show which of MLB.com's Top 100 prospects had the highest and lowest BABIPs during the 2016 season, but also to add some perspective on their abilities as a hitter. Start here with a full table of top-prospect BABIPs.

Yankees' No. 5 prospect and first-round pick Blake Rutherford would have normally been ruled out here for too small a sample, but his crazy outlier of a BABIP is worth noting. Though .300 is considered average, it's not uncommon to see BABIPs in the upper .300's. (NL batting champ D.J. LeMahieu led the Majors at .388 this season.) But Rutherford's .446 mark between the Gulf Coast League and Rookie-level Pulaski highlights what can happen in small samples. In fact, he owned a .500 BABIP in 89 at-bats in the Appalachian League, meaning half of all balls he put in play fell in for hits. By all accounts, the 19-year-old outfielder impressed in his first Minor League season with a .986 OPS and 15 extra-base hits in 33 games, but if Yankees fans excited about Rutherford hitting in the .350 range again in 2017, know that number is bound to regress over larger samples and against tougher pitching and defenses.

As for the rest of the group, Eloy Jimenez showed the type of line-drive ability to get a high BABIP with 57 extra-base hits in 112 games for Class A South Bend, 40 of which were doubles. But even though 2016 represented a breakout season for the Cubs' No. 2 prospect, his .391 BABIP might have inflated some of that, especially coming off a 2015 campaign in which he posted a .284 average and .321 BABIP at Class A Short Season Eugene.

Top Mets prospect Amed Rosario and Yoan Moncada are both plus runners capable of getting the extra hit here and there. But of the two, Rosario's .382 BABIP feels softest considering he's much more of a singles hitter than Moncada. The top Red Sox prospect did have his BABIP partially inflated by playing half the season in a Class A Advanced Salem at a park known for keeping even the most well-hit balls in the yard.

Francisco Mejia's high BABIP confirms what we think about long hitting streaks -- you're going to have to get some balls to fall in. Joe DiMaggio posted a .374 BABIP during his record 56-gamer in 1941. the fourth-ranked Indians prospect went beyond even that during his 50-gamer this summer with a .419 BABIP over that run. There was obviously one instance in which a potential error was turned into a hit, and while we're not putting this solely on official scorers, there is inherently some luck involved in stringing together so many games with at least one hit. That's not to discredit the immense improvements the 20-year-old catcher made with the bat, however.

No. 2 Mariners prospect Tyler O'Neill packs plenty of punch when he makes contact, so it's not a surprise to see the 21-year-old outfielder post a BABIP on the higher side. However, his .364 mark at Double-A Jackson represents a new high at any full-season level, beating out a .320 at Class A Clinton in 2014, and should explain why his average jumped from .260 in 2015 to .293 this summer.

There aren't the same outliers in this group that there were in the one above, and as was the case with ISO and Spd, BABIPs are generally going to be on the higher side here because the group of prospects used are considered to be the best in the game. Only nine of the 57 hitting prospects used here had a BABIP below .300.

That said, Willie Calhoun's BABIP is especially low for any group, and a little digging shows why he was the perfect candidate for a low BABIP in 2016. First, he put the ball in play a lot. The Dodgers' No. 4 prospect struck out in only 11.6 percent of his plate appearances for Double-A Tulsa, the second-lowest K rate in the Texas League this past season. The at-bats that didn't end in K's likely led to weaker contact and outs of other varieties. Second, he also homered a bunch with 27 of his 128 hits (or 21.1 percent) leaving the yard. Third, Calhoun is considered a below-average runner, meaning he likely didn't grab an extra infield hit here and there. Take that all together, and you can see why his BABIP was so low. However, Calhoun's BABIP was on the high side in 2015 at .332 between Rookie-level Ogden, Class A Great Lakes and Class A Advanced Rancho Cucamonga, so it may take another full season before his real BABIP potential can be realized.

Matt Chapman is similar in that he is a below-average runner (40 grade, per MLB.com) with most of his power being of the home run variety. The A's No. 4 prospect sent 36 of his 122 hits (29.5 percent) over the fence, and 52.9 percent of his 68 extra-base hits were homers. (Reminder: home runs are not considered "in play" for BABIP purposes.) Where Chapman differs is that he can strike out a ton, which he did in 2016 with a 33.6 percent strikeout rate between Double-A Midland and Triple-A Nashville. Without a high BABIP to get him a few extra hits, the 23-year-old third baseman will always likely post a low average (like his career .243 mark), and with most of his hard-hit balls heading out of play and little speed on the basepaths, he'll always likely post a low BABIP. 

What could've been J.P. Crawford's ascendant season to the Majors never quite materialized as the 21-year-old shortstop posted just a .250/.349/.339 line between Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley. BABIP did him no favors in that first part of the slash line, but Crawford didn't help himself either with little power and only 28 extra-base hits. In fact, MLB.com's No. 2 overall prospect has posted a BABIP above .300 at only two spots where he's had at least 100 plate appearances -- the GCL in 2013 (.414) and Class A Lakewood in 2014 (.342). That's not a reason to hit the panic button, however. Crawford remains an impressive fielder at a difficult position, and he'll still only be the age of a college senior when he starts 2017 at the Phillies' Triple-A affiliate. What's more, he showed an impressive approach with a 80/72 K/BB ratio through 123 games, and there's the hope that he can turn that discipline into more hits as he matures.

Neither Cody Bellinger nor Corey Ray's BABIPs are low enough to cause any real concern. In the case of the former, the top Dodgers prospect saw his strikeout rate drop from 27.6 percent at Class A Advanced Rancho Cucamonga in 2015 to 19.6 percent at Double-A Tulsa and Triple-A Oklahoma City this summer, and it's likely those strikeouts translated directly to in-play outs, meaning a lower BABIP even as his average went up from .264 to .271.

Ray's season was more worrisome as the No. 5 overall pick couldn't get it going after an especially productive final season at Louisville, where he hit .310/.388/.545 with 15 homers and 44 stolen bases. Ray's overall BABIP was hurt by a small three-game sample at Class A Wisconsin, where the second-ranked Milwaukee prospect went 1-for-8 on balls in play, and with a .299 BABIP in 231 at-bats at Class A Advanced Brevard County, it's more likely his 21.3 percent strikeout rate hurt his offensive performance more than anything BABIP-related.

(Note: Toolshed Stats will be back in two weeks with a breakdown of BABIP as it relates to top pitching prospects.)