Prospect Projections: NL Central rookies

It's an exciting time to be on the Pirates bandwagon. Following 20 straight losing campaigns, the Bucs have made the playoffs the past three seasons and have shown few signs of a downturn. They have their ace in Gerrit Cole. They have arguably the game's most talented outfield in Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte and Gregory Polanco. They have one of the game's better catchers in Francisco Cervelli.

And yet ...

There are those two other teams in the National League Central that could be major contenders in 2016. The Cubs rode one of the most exciting rosters in the game to the NLCS last season before adding Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist and John Lackey. The Cardinals were the Majors' only 100-game winners during the regular season and remain formidable, even after losing Heyward. 

So even with all they have going for them, the Pirates are going to need help if they hope to win their first division title since 1992 and avoid a fourth straight trip to the NL Wild Card game.

Namely, Tyler Glasnow.

For the past three seasons in the Minors, the 22-year-old right-hander has had the potential to be a future top-of-the-rotation option for Pittsburgh, especially with an 11.8 career K/9. That fate looked almost sealed during a 2015 season in which Glasnow posted a 2.39 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with 136 strikeouts and a .195 opponents' average over 109 1/3 innings across three levels. He particularly wasn't fazed by a late-season promotion to Triple-A Indianapolis, where he had a 2.20 ERA and 48 punchouts in 41 frames.

Glasnow became an easy addition to the 40-man roster last November and has continued to see his stock remain high elsewhere. In its latest updated rankings, MLB.com placed the 6-foot-8 hurler in the No. 10 overall spot, highest among all Pirates prospects and second among right-handed pitchers behind the Nationals' Lucas Giolito. 

Anecdotally, it looks like Glasnow is ready to make the jump to the Majors. The projections seem to agree.

Steamer600, the FanGraphs' projection system discussed in full in this Prospect Projections series opener on AL East rookies, believes Glasnow would post a 3.82 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 1.33 WHIP and 9.1 K/9, given 200 innings in the Majors this season. Even his projected 4.1 BB/9, while not particularly stellar, would be better than his career average in the Minors (4.2). In all, he'd be worth 2.7 wins above replacement (WAR). In 2015, only three rookie pitchers produced higher WARs: Anthony DeSclafani (3.2), Noah Syndergaard (3.1) and Lance McCullers (2.8). And with innings pitched being equal, Steamer600 likes Glasnow's chances better than expected starters Jeff Locke (2.0 WAR), Jon Niese (1.8 WAR) and Ryan Vogelsong (1.0). 

There are a few obstacles to making those projections a reality, particularly a return to Indianapolis, where Glasnow will work on his control while the Pirates make sure his service time clock doesn't start too early. For guidance, consider that Cole didn't make his Major League debut until June 11 in his 2013 rookie season. 

But with the Pirates needing as many hands -- and arms -- on deck as they can get to battle the Cubs and Cardinals, they may not have to wait long to get one fresh off the farm.

 Pittsburgh Pirates

Most ready: Glasnow. See above.

Give it time: First base isn't exactly the Pirates' strongest position, even with the addition of John Jaso. That might be a way of keeping the spot open for Josh Bell, considered the game's No. 2 first base prospect by MLB.com. Steamer isn't quite as high on the 22-year-old switch-hitter, who produced a .317/.393/.446 line at Double-A and Triple-A last season. His projected 102 wRC+ pegs him to be above-average offensively, but it's not enough at this offensive-minded position. (What's more, Jaso is projected for a 111 wRC+.) The Bucs will be content to let Bell go back to Indianapolis, where he'll continue to work defensively in his second full season at first.  

Wild card: Jameson Taillon hasn't pitched in a game since 2013 following Tommy John and hernia surgeries the past two seasons, but Steamer doesn't hold that against him. The projections believe the 24-year-old right-hander would be better than Glasnow, given his previous success at the higher levels of the Pittsburgh system. The Bucs will want MLB.com's No. 54 overall prospect to stay healthy, but if he can return to form in the early going, he could make for another intriguing rotation option. Taillon told MiLB.com's Alex Kraft he's "sick of being a prospect."

Top-100 talent: Austin Meadows has jumped into the top 20 of MLB.com's overall rankings following an impressive season in which he hit .310 with a .760 OPS and 21 steals between Class A Advanced Bradenton and Altoona. Steamer thinks he'd be an OK option in a Major League outfield right now, but with the Pirates set for years to come, no one will rush the 20-year-old any time soon.

 Chicago Cubs

Most ready: With all the young talent and free agents joining the Cubs in the last 12 months, it seems like the only position lacking a long-term option is catcher. (The ship seems to have sailed on Kyle Schwarber's future behind the plate.) Enter Contreras, who's moved up to No. 50 in MLB.com's latest rankings after hitting .333/.413/.478 at Double-A Tennessee last season. The 23-year-old has become the game's top catching prospect, and Steamer believes he can handle a jump to the Majors right now. If he continues to show promise at Triple-A Iowa, he could get his chance early on as the Cubs only have three catchers on the 40-man roster. Any injury to veterans Miguel Montero or David Ross could lead to the ascension of the next big phenom.

Give it time: Billy McKinney retained his spot among MLB.com's top 100 prospects after hitting .300 with an .825 OPS at Class A Advanced Myrtle Beach and Tennessee before a knee injury ended his first full season in the Chicago system. There might be a time when McKinney's bat is above-average at the Major League level, but Steamer doesn't believe it'll be in 2016 with a projected wRC+ of 89. Without a spot on the 40-man roster, the 21-year-old will be given a chance to add some power at the upper levels to start 2016, with an eye on a potential September callup.

Wild card: Carl Edwards Jr. became a full-time reliever last year and was a more extreme version of himself in the role. The lanky right-hander posted a 2.77 ERA while striking out 75 and walking 41 over 55 1/3 innings at Triple-A Iowa and Tennessee. He made five appearances in the Majors and is a candidate to make the bullpen out of camp this spring. Steamer projected the 24-year-old as a starter after spending most of his career in that role and doesn't think he'd do incredibly poorly there. However, the Cubs seem content on sticking with Edwards in relief. If he's to crack the Majors early on, he'll have to work on limiting his walks after averaging 6.6 per nine innings between the Majors and Minors last season.

Top-100 talent: Gleyber Torres put himself on many maps by handling himself well offensively (.293/.353/.386) at Class A South Bend at the age of 18 in 2015. He's become the Cubs' top prospect following the graduation of Schwarber, Kris Bryant and Addison Russell and remains at least two years away from joining that group, as his Steamer projections help indicate.

 Cincinnati Reds

Most ready: The Reds are in the land of the Phillies and Braves as clubs focusing exclusively on rebuilding, and they took a step in that direction when they trade Johnny Cueto to the Royals for three left-handed pitching prospects. Cody Reed might end up being the best of that trio, but for now, John Lamb looks like the southpaw best equipped to help the big club in 2016. The 25-year-old will likely slot behind Homer Bailey, Anthony DeSclafani and Raisel Iglesias in a somewhat subpar rotation, but Steamer pegs him to be the club's second-best starter with a 2.6 projected WAR that trails only Iglesias (3.2). On a good club, Lamb is a back-end rotation option. For the Reds, he could be more of a front-end type.

Give it time: The plan has always been for Robert Stephenson to take over as the Reds' ace, and Steamer believes that MLB.com's No. 35 overall prospect wouldn't fare too horribly in the Majors right now. The 22-year-old right-hander is pegged for a 4.12 ERA, 8.9 K/9 and 2.1 WAR over 200 innings. As part of their rebuilding plan though, the Reds are more likely to keep their top pitching prospect at Triple-A Louisville until he breaks down the door in order to limit the speed bumps once he gets the call. He was added to the 40-man roster in November, so that call could come at any time. Just don't expect it for a few months.

Wild card: As part of the rebuild, the Reds shipped All-Star third baseman Todd Frazier to the White Sox in a three-team deal with the Dodgers. Eugenio Suarez is expected to take over at the hot corner. But Steamer argues that the better third-base option came over in a separate trade and isn't even on the 40-man roster. Eric Jagielo, who came over from the Yankees in the Aroldis Chapman deal, actually had the third-highest projected WAR among New York's position players and moves into the No. 2 slot on the Reds behind Joey Votto (4.3). The 23-year-old third baseman, who batted .284 with nine homers in an injury-plagued season at Double-A Trenton, will get a chance to impress the new brass as a non-roster invitee at Spring Training.

Top-100 talent: The Reds have some pretty sizable holes in their corner outfield spots, holes that are just crying out to be filled by Jesse Winker, especially after he hit .316/.426/.516 with 10 homers in 63 games during the second half for Double-A Pensacola. Steamer and the Reds seem to be in agreement, though, that some time in Louisville is needed for the left-handed-hitting slugger. Jose Peraza looked like he was supposed to take over at second base after coming over in the Frazier deal, but he'll take a backseat with Brandon Phillips still around. The Reds and Steamer both like his speed potential, but like the prospect community itself, the two sides seem to be at odds over his offensive potential. Steamer would like to see some power from the 21-year-old before saying he can add much value to a big league club.

 Milwaukee Brewers

Most ready: The Brewers find themselves in a similar situation to the Reds in that they're not building for 2016 and instead have their eyes much further down the road. That said, like Cincinnati, one of the Brewers' deadline deals looks like it'll have an almost immediate impact on the Major League squad. Zach Davies, acquired from the Orioles, was solid in a six-game cameo last September, going 3-2 with a 3.71 ERA, and Steamer likes his chances to help the Brewers rotation out of the gate in 2016. Davies (2.0) is second behind only Jimmy Nelson (2.6) when it comes to Steamer600-projected WAR among starting pitchers. Still, he'll compete with Chase Anderson, Matt Garza and Jorge Lopez for the final spot in the Milwaukee rotation.

Give it time: Speaking of Anderson, the right-hander was involved in a five-player swap last week that most notably sent shortstop Jean Segura to the D-backs. The first immediate thoughts turned to what the trade meant for top Brewers prospect Orlando Arcia. The 21-year-old shortstop moved up to No. 6 in MLB.com's overall rankings after batting .307 with 52 extra-base hits and 25 steals at Double-A Biloxi last season and is easily the future of the position for the Brew Crew. That future is likely a few months away though as Steamer doesn't expect Arcia to destroy Major League competition out of the gate. The Brewers already have indicated that Arcia is ticketed for Triple-A Colorado Springs.

Wild card: The Padres designated Rymer Liriano for assignment last month and promptly traded him to the Brewers for left-handed reliever Trevor Seidenberger. The 24-year-old was a top 50 prospect three seasons ago but has seen his stock slip as his power hasn't quite developed and his strikeout rate has remained high. He hit .220/.289/.266 with 39 strikeouts in 109 at-bats in the Majors in 2014 and didn't return in 2015. Liriano will get a new chance to reach his potential, but he'll need to beat his projections to make that happen. Steamer believes he'll be worse than replacement level in the Majors.

Top-100 talent: Jorge Lopez was the 2015 Southern League Pitcher of the Year after going 12-5 with a 2.26 ERA over 143 1/3 innings for Biloxi. Like Arcia, there's a decent chance he could be OK following a move to the Majors -- he made a pair of starts there in September -- but is more likely headed to the Pacific Coast League until deemed completely ready. The same goes for Brett Phillips, who came over from the Astros in the Carlos Gomez trade with the Astros. Phillips is not one of the eight outfielders on the Brewers' 40-man roster and is likely a little further away from a big league debut.

 St. Louis Cardinals

Most ready: The Cardinals haven't had any problems developing pitching the last couple years, and you can tell by the first three slots here that that trend doesn't look likely to end soon. Tim Cooney looks like the best of the bunch right now. The southpaw posted a 3.16 ERA in six spot starts with St. Louis last season and showed particularly good control at Triple-A Memphis, where he issued only 16 walks over 88 2/3 innings. Steamer believes he'd fit right in at the back end of the St. Louis rotation. In fact, his 2.0 projected WAR equals that of Mike Leake, who signed a five-year, $80 million contract as a free agent in December. Most likely, Cooney will be back in Memphis for a third straight season, where he'll be ready to be called upon in case of injury.

Give it time: Cooney is the better option, but Alex Reyes is the pitcher the Cardinals would like to see hit the Majors ASAP, especially after he was named MLB.com's No. 13 overall prospect on the strength of his plus fastball and curveball. Unfortunately, Reyes is suspended for the 50 games of the Minor League season after testing positive for a drug of abuse. If he can come close to matching his 13.4 K/9 from 2015 when he returns, the calls for him to ascend will get louder. A September promotion, just in time for a potential division race, seems in the cards.

Wild card: If there's something the Cardinals lack, it's any big-name position player prospects. That said, No. 21 prospect Greg Garcia could prove to be a valuable bench option. The 26-year-old showed versatility by playing shortstop, third base and second base with the big club, and St. Louis could do worse than his projected .327 on-base percentage.

Top-100 talent: Jack Flaherty was drafted 34th overall in 2014 and already has climbed to No. 80 in MLB.com's top 100 prospect rankings after posting a 2.84 ERA with 97 strikeouts over 95 innings as a 19-year-old at Class A Peoria. A promising start, to be sure, but it'll be two more years before we can talk about him in any of the other categories here.