Toolshed: Prospects primed for turnaround

Earlier this week Toolshed looked at early MiLBY award favorites from the first three months-plus of the Minor League season. But the All-Star break isn't just about looking back; it's also a chance to look forward.

That said, there were a few top prospects for whom the first half wasn't exactly award-worthy. Among that group, however, are a handful who've shown signs of turning their fortunes around. Here are five MLB.com top 100 prospects Toolshed believes are primed for a strong second half:

Rangers OF Lewis Brinson, Double-A Frisco: The Rangers' No. 2 prospect was a breakout darling in 2015, hitting .332/.403/.601 with 59 extra-base hits (20 homers) and 18 steals across three levels and finishing the year with Triple-A Round Rock in the Pacific Coast League playoffs. It's been a different story in his return to Frisco with a .219/.273/.417 line in 51 games through June 9 before hitting the DL with a left shoulder strain. Part of the reasons behind the struggles may not have been Brinson's fault. His .235 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was low compared to his career marks -- he's never posted a BABIP lower than .323 at a full-season level. His plus speed and ability to make hard contact usually help in that regard, and a low BABIP typically speaks to tough luck. There are signs that Brinson's turnaround is coming. Since returning to the RoughRiders on July 6, the 22-year-old is 13-for-36 (.361) with three homers, two triples, a double and two steals in eight games. His BABIP over that stretch? .417. Despite the struggles, no one seems particularly worried about the 2012 first-rounder -- a lowered 18.1 percent strikeout rate has helped -- and now signs are pointing to a strong finish for MLB.com's No. 13 prospect.

Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers, Class A Advanced Salem: Talking about players hurt by BABIP, Devers was the poster child in the first half of the Carolina League season. Despite above-average hit and power tools, the 19-year-old produced a .233/.300/.335 line in 63 games. Given his age, there's always the chance of growing pains, but some Red Sox fans grew concerned when it looked like Devers was being left in the dust by Salem teammates/top Sox prospects Yoan Moncada and Andrew Benintendi, both of whom have been promoted and are producing at Double-A Portland. But Devers had a similar problem to Brinson, hurt by a .265 BABIP that is significantly lower than the .326 he put up at Class A Greenville in 2015. Even so, his OPS grew each month -- .504 in April, .652 in May, .738 in June and an astounding 1.245 through 13 games in July. So far in the second half, he's produced a .356/.405/.658 line with 16 extra-base hits in 19 games, which is why it's important to remember the term "player development." As one of only a handful of teenaged position players in the Carolina League, there was a chance Devers would need to grow into the level, and now we're seeing that from the Dominican Republic native.

Braves LHP Sean Newcomb, Double-A Mississippi: Walks continue to befuddle as the 23-year-old left-hander averaged 5.1 BB/9 over 18 starts (88 1/3 innings), despite plus stuff and relatively sound mechanics. His inclusion on this list isn't a prediction that Newcomb will magically find his control in the second half. Instead, it's about his ability to overcome those walks and improve upon a 4.79 ERA that ranks fourth-worst among qualified Southern League pitchers. The Braves' No. 2 prospect struck out batters at an impressive 9.4 K/9 clip (fourth-best in the circuit), and when you throw in the fact that he's only allowed four homers in 88 1/3 frames, his 3.66 FIP looks much rosier than his ERA. In fact, that FIP is near the middle of the pack (19th out of 34 qualifiers), meaning Newcomb has been much better when you take defense out of it. MLB.com's No. 17 prospect could certainly help his own case by issuing fewer free passes, but such a wide gulf between ERA and FIP usually points to a turnaround when it comes to runs allowed.

Brewers LHP Josh Hader, Triple-A Colorado Springs: Having Hader on this list may seem odd given that he was a Toolshed topic earlier this season for the way he stood out at Double-A Biloxi, where he owned a 0.95 ERA with 73 strikeouts in 57 innings. Colorado Springs has been a different story as the 22-year-old southpaw has run into similar problems as Newcomb through his first five starts -- a high walk rate (5.3), a high BABIP (.424) and a high ERA (6.38). Despite the jump in level, the Brewers' No. 4 prospect continues to strike out batters at an incredibly high rate (11.6 K/9), and as a result his 4.15 FIP is significant lower than his bloated ERA. Such differences aren't rare in small samples, but they can still be telling. With his sidearm delivery and control issues, there are still reasons to believe that Hader will end up in a Major League bullpen, but his peripherals show that the southpaw has been better as a Triple-A starter than his ERA alone would indicate and deserves a longer look in that role.

(A previous version of this story mentioned Astros prospect Daz Cameron. However, Cameron will reportedly miss the remainder of the season with a broken left index finger, ending what had been a promising bounceback at Class A Short Season Tri-City.)