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Toolshed: Swaps will benefit some systems

How 2018 trade deadline could impact pipelines for selling clubs
Francisco Mejia was batting .279 with a .755 OPS for Triple-A Columbus before being moved to the Padres. (Cathryn Wood/Columbus Clippers)
July 20, 2018

To check the date, some people look at their phones. Some consult a calendar. Around this time of year, folks across baseball might as well consult the transaction page.Major League Baseball trade deadline season kicked into high gear this week, with Manny Machado heading to the Dodgers for Yusniel Díaz

To check the date, some people look at their phones. Some consult a calendar. Around this time of year, folks across baseball might as well consult the transaction page.
Major League Baseball trade deadline season kicked into high gear this week, with Manny Machado heading to the Dodgers for Yusniel Díaz and four other prospects Wednesday and Brad Hand and Adam Cimber going to the Indians for No. 15 overall prospectFrancisco Mejía on Thursday. As a result, the Orioles system significantly improved while the Padres added their 10th Top 100 Prospect, giving them the most by far in the game.
This latest edition of Toolshed explores how some organizations could bolster their farm systems with notable deals before this year's July 31 trade deadline.

Baltimore Orioles and San Diego Padres: Neither of these organizations is necessarily done. The Orioles have their own left-handed closer to potentially deal in Zach Britton, and though he's coming off a major Achilles injury, he is showing signs of improvement with four straight scoreless outings, and he's got the resume of a very desirable late-innings pitcher. The one thing hurting the Orioles is that Britton is only signed through this year, so a return like the one the Padres got for Hand just isn't in the cards. But the constant demand for bullpen help should allow Baltimore to add something to a system that is in dire need of improved depth. On the San Diego side, right-hander Tyson Ross could help a Major League rotation as a rental while right-handed reliever Kirby Yates, who has a 1.43 ERA and 0.88 WHIP this season, is much more controllable as he doesn't begin arbitration until this offseason. The Padres, who signed Eric Hosmer and acquired Mejia with the hopes of contending soon, might not want to give up more long-term Major League pieces, but just because they own the game's best farm system, that doesn't mean it can't get any better.
New York Mets: How far do the Metropolitans want to go with this? With his contract up at the end of the season, closer Jeurys Familia seems as good as gone, but he alone is unlikely to fetch the organization a third Top 100 Prospect to complement Andrés Giménez and Peter Alonso. Same for infielder Asdrúbal Cabrera, who everyone thought would be dealt in 2017 but ended up having his option picked up for 2018. Right-handed starter Zack Wheeler -- as someone under team control through 2019 -- could bring a bigger return, but that'll depend on how much teams believe in his health for the next 15 months. If New York really wants to press the rebuild button, they'd put Major League ERA leader Jacob deGrom and fireballer Noah Syndergaard on the table. The former is at the height of his trade value with two more years of team control after this one while the latter has one more year beyond that. Trading either or both would be the blockbuster of the deadline, but it would amount to the Mets signaling to fans that they don't plan to compete in 2019, either. More likely, they try to find some middle ground with deals elsewhere and take another crack this offseason.
Texas Rangers: There was a time when a July Cole Hamels trade was a really big deal. It was 2015, actually, when the lefty headlined a deal that sent six players to Philadelphia. With a 4.36 ERA this season, he won't bring back the same package this time, but Texas will certainly be on the lookout for a deal before it has to make a decision on his $20 million team option for 2019. Other veterans, like third baseman Adrián Beltré and outfielder/DH Shin-Soo Choo, could also bring back boosts to the system, though other clubs are unlikely to pay offer big prospect packages for aging stars, especially one like Choo, who is due $42 million between 2019 and 2020. (Of course, Texas could eat some money in a Choo swap.) But sitting at the bottom of the AL West with only one of its Top 100 Prospects above the Class A Advanced level, the Rangers could use some juice added to the mix in the Minors. 
Toronto Blue Jays: J.A. Happ was right next to Machado as the most likely player to be dealt before the deadline. He ticks all the right boxes. He's a left-handed starter with a good track record, so teams will want him to fill out their contending rotations. He's becoming a free agent this offseason and plays for a non-contender, so Toronto will want to get something for him before he leaves. Unlike the Rangers or Mets, the Jays already have a solid farm system headlined by Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, so this wouldn't be a trade made out of long-term necessity but rather a case of striking while there is a trade iron to strike.
Kansas City Royals: The Royals jumped the gun a bit on the trade market when they moved Kelvin Herrera to the Nationals last month and picked up prospects Kelvin Gutierrez, Blake Perkins and Yohanse Morel in the process. That's a good start, but this is still a system in need of help, even after a solid Draft. Only Gutierrez is ranked among Kansas City's top 10 prospects at present, and 2018 first-rounder Brady Singer might be the closest thing the system has to a Top 100 Prospect. Unfortunately, the Royals don't have a major trade asset that could beef up the farm. Third baseman Mike Moustakas seems like he could help a team with a need at the hot corner, but then again, anyone could have had him last offseason before he ended up re-signing with Kansas City late in March. Another Royals rebuild is most likely to come through the Draft, and the "good" news is that the organization has a game up on Baltimore to take the first overall pick next June.
Chicago White Sox: This season, the White Sox, like the Padres, should be in sell mode for maybe the last time for years to come. They do have some controllable relievers who could move on the market in Joakim Soria, Nate Jones and Luis Avilán. They'd love to find a taker for James Shields as well, but that's less likely to bring back anything of consequence, barring some money going the other way. If Chicago -- which already boasts eight Top 100 Prospects -- wanted to make a decent-sized splash on the farm, it'd explore moving Jose Abreu. But he's having the worst offensive season of his career with a 101 wRC+, and the Sox shouldn't want to sell low on the face of the franchise. Expect minor improvements to the already impressive pipeline instead.
Miami Marlins: How big do the Marlins want to go on their rebuild? Or perhaps more importantly, how much are other clubs willing to pay to help them in that rebuild? While Miami moved out stars Christian Yelich, Dee Gordon and Marcell Ozuna in the offseason, it held onto J.T. Realmuto, and now he leads all Major League catchers with a 3.5 WAR, per FanGraphs. At a time when catching is down across the board, Realmuto could fetch many pretty pennies and bring the Miami system, which boasts only two Top 100 Prospects in Monte Harrison and Sandy Alcantara, to another level. The Nationals have been brought up as a potential partner here, but it'd take parting with prospects along the lines of Victor Robles, Carter Kieboom and/or Luis Garcia to bring Realmuto into the fold. As always with these types of deals, Miami is right to ask for the moon. Washington (or another club) is right to say no, if it doesn't want to mortgage the future for a few months of potential prosperity with its window potentially closing this season. It's more likely Miami deals a reliever like Brad Ziegler for a modest return, but keep an eye out for more Realmuto rumors.
Detroit Tigers: This all depends on where the Tigers truly think they are in their rebuild. Starters Mike Fiers and Francisco Liriano will be on the block regardless, and they should listen to offers on closer Shane Greene. But Nick Castellanos' value may never be higher, and he's got only one more year of control after this one. Michael Fulmer isn't scheduled to enter free agency until 2022, but his name keeps coming up as a potential trade target for clubs in search of a controllable starter. Another firesale like the one that allowed the Tigers to deal Justin Verlander last August could add a big wave of talent to a system already heavy on right-handed pitching. That would require Detroit punting on at least 2019, however, and the team would probably prefer to see Fulmer head a contending Tigers rotation someday. It's likely that top overall pick Casey Mize is the biggest addition to the system this summer. 
Tampa Bay Rays: The Rays have a winning record and a strong system that's spread out pretty well from top (Willy Adames at Triple-A) to bottom (Wander Franco in Rookie ball). So why the inclusion here? Well, the club is 18 games back in the AL East and 8 1/2 games back in the Wild Card race. It's going to be tough sledding in August and September. Given that he'll be a free agent this offseason, All-Star catcher Wilson Ramos seems ripe to be traded -- especially to a club that balks at Miami's price for Realmuto. Same goes for righty Nathan Eovaldi, who is healthy and averaging 97 mph again on his heater. A trade for either is more likely to bring back organizational depth than system-changing talent. It'd take dealing Blake Snell or Chris Archer to bring something akin to the latter, but that'd be a serious white flag for a team that has hovered around the .500 mark each of the last two seasons and has more help on the way already.

Sam Dykstra is a reporter for MiLB.com. Follow and interact with him on Twitter, @SamDykstraMiLB.