Prospect projections: NL West rookies
Here's a look at top prospects who could exhaust their rookie status in 2015 for the San Diego Padres. Below you'll find analysis regarding who could make an impact, as well as Steamer projections (taken with gratitude from FanGraphs) for those players. For those who don't know, Steamer is a projection system that uses statistics, age, level and other factors to predict player performance. The system makes for a fun point of reference in trying to gauge which prospects could play the biggest short-term roles.
San Diego Padres
HITTERS
| Padres | POS | PA | HR | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | Fld | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Dickerson | OF | 600 | 15 | 8 | .242 | .286 | .384 | .294 | 90 | 0.0 | 0.9 |
| Taylor Lindsey | 2B | 600 | 10 | 7 | .223 | .273 | .327 | .268 | 73 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Cory Spangenberg | 2B | 600 | 6 | 23 | .245 | .286 | .341 | .279 | 80 | -3.1 | 0.4 |
| Jake Goebbert | 1B | 600 | 15 | 6 | .225 | .307 | .369 | .301 | 95 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| Austin Hedges | C | 450 | 6 | 4 | .206 | .251 | .301 | .247 | 58 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Hunter Renfroe | OF | 600 | 14 | 6 | .216 | .269 | .347 | .274 | 76 | 0.0 | -0.1 |
| Yeison Asencio | OF | 600 | 11 | 6 | .238 | .271 | .350 | .274 | 76 | 0.0 | -0.2 |
| Cody Decker | 1B | 600 | 21 | 3 | .201 | .270 | .368 | .285 | 84 | 0.0 | -0.4 |
| Rymer Liriano | OF | 600 | 11 | 15 | .224 | .284 | .339 | .279 | 80 | -1.5 | -0.5 |
| Rico Noel | OF | 600 | 3 | 30 | .207 | .273 | .266 | .247 | 58 | 0.0 | -1.4 |
New general manager A.J. Preller reshaped the entire organization with a series of offseason trades, leaving opportunities sparse for unproven Minor Leaguers to earn regular big league jobs. That said, two top prospects -- Austin Hedges and Hunter Renfroe (pictured right - Ems 2013) -- have a chance to make their Major League debuts this season. Hedges is one of the Minors' top defensive catchers but hasn't shown much offensively. Renfroe, meanwhile, is one of the top power prospects around, though he's not much of a defender and struck out too often at Double-A last year. Steamer projects a 25 percent strikeout rate, the main reason Renfroe's batting average comes in at just .216.
San Diego could get key contributions off the bench from less heralded prospects like Alex Dickerson, Taylor Lindsey, Cory Spangenberg (pictured left - Ems 2014) and Jake Goebbert. Dickerson and Goebbert both profile best at first base but also can play the corner outfield spots. One or both could fit well on a Major League bench, though the team already has a more established first baseman/outfielder on the roster in Tommy Medica. Lindsey and Spangenberg look like decent insurance policies if Jedd Gyorko continues to regress at the keystone. Both are left-handed hitters, so sliding them into a platoon with the right-handed Gyorko is a possibility, if it comes to that.
PITCHERS
| Padres | W | L | ERA | GS | G | IP | HR | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Wisler | 11 | 13 | 4.24 | 32 | 32 | 200 | 22 | 1.33 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 4.04 | 0.9 |
| Casey Kelly | 3 | 3 | 3.23 | 0 | 65 | 65 | 6 | 1.16 | 8.2 | 2.1 | 3.27 | 0.3 |
| Leonel Campos | 3 | 3 | 3.66 | 0 | 65 | 65 | 5 | 1.34 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 3.60 | -0.1 |
| Chris Rearick | 3 | 3 | 3.68 | 0 | 65 | 65 | 6 | 1.29 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 3.77 | -0.2 |
| Brandon Alger | 2 | 3 | 3.90 | 0 | 65 | 65 | 6 | 1.32 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 3.96 | -0.3 |
| Frank Garces | 3 | 3 | 3.76 | 0 | 65 | 65 | 6 | 1.33 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 3.93 | -0.4 |
| Jay Jackson | 3 | 4 | 4.70 | 0 | 65 | 65 | 7 | 1.46 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 4.51 | -0.7 |
| Tayron Guerrero | 3 | 4 | 4.76 | 0 | 65 | 65 | 7 | 1.52 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 4.68 | -0.9 |
| Aaron Northcraft | 3 | 5 | 5.04 | 0 | 65 | 65 | 8 | 1.51 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 4.90 | -0.9 |
| Adys Portillo | 3 | 4 | 4.75 | 0 | 65 | 65 | 7 | 1.55 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 4.64 | -0.9 |
| Justin Hancock | 3 | 5 | 5.71 | 0 | 65 | 65 | 9 | 1.63 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 5.40 | -1.5 |
Triple-A El Paso was not a fun place for Matt Wisler last year. The right-hander logged 116 2/3 innings with the Chihuahuas and posted a 5.01 ERA, more than two runs higher than the ERA he'd posted at any other level -- save for a one-appearance stint in Rookie ball in 2011. Most of the El Paso pitching staff struggled in brand new Southwest University Park, and Wisler was no exception, compiling a 6.24 ERA at home against a 3.98 ERA on the road. The lackluster home numbers haven't disturbed Steamer all that much. The system thinks Wisler could hold his own in the Majors right now, although it's more likely the 22-year-old gets some more work at Triple-A to begin the season.
Casey Kelly also is likely to work into the rotation at some point. The right-hander debuted in 2012 and looked prime to lock down a rotation spot, then missed all of 2013 following Tommy John surgery. The 25-year-old made four Minor League starts in May but missed the rest of the season following a setback. Kelly could compete for a rotation spot in Spring Training, but it's more likely he'll be one of the first players on the shuttle from El Paso to San Diego if there's an injury.
Biggest impactor: San Diego has big league veterans entrenched more or less across the diamond, but it lacks standout infielders and left-handed hitters. Even if it's not at second base, either Lindsey or Spangenberg could work his way into regular at-bats. Neither is guaranteed to provide much, but one or both should get the chance to contribute.
Fantasy special: Wisler profiles best as a mid-rotation pitcher, but he'll be slightly more valuable to fantasy owners since Petco Park is so pitcher-friendly. The right-hander should become a solid fantasy starter when he gets his shot at the Padres rotation.