Fantasy Focus: pitching prospects

With the season less than a month away, an important rite of spring is rapidly approaching: fantasy baseball drafts. Of course, these drafts are rarely won in the first few rounds, when everyone has a chance to select a stud, but rather much later, when a wrong pick can mean the difference between a breakout MVP candidate and a player who's cut two weeks into the season. Many sleepers can be found in the form of top prospects with little to no Major League experience -- Mike Trout in 2012 and Jose Fernandez in '13, for examples -- and can help crown fantasy champions. Here to help weed through which prospects are worthy of a spot on your squad is MiLB.com's Fantasy Focus preview, which finishes here with pitchers. 

Starting pitchers

Three for now

1. Daniel Norris, Blue Jays: The baseball world felt collective grief Wednesday when the Jays announced that potential breakout star Marcus Stroman will miss the entire season due to a torn ACL. Injuries are the worst, but when it comes to fantasy, we must press forward and look at what Stroman's absence means for the Toronto rotation. General manager Alex Anthopoulos acknowledged that Norris, Aaron Sanchez and Marco Estrada will fight for the last two spots this spring, and though we won't go into the specific merits of one over the other, let's explain why Norris should be the best fantasy option. 

The 21-year-old left-hander moved through three levels last season, posting a 2.53 ERA with 163 strikeouts and 43 walks over 124 2/3 innings. He made it to the big club for five appearances during roster expansion in September and, although he gave up four earned runs in that small sample, he showed he's capable of handling the Majors, as seen in his strikeout of David Ortiz. 

Each of the projections have Norris posting an ERA a touch north of 4.00, but they also have him striking out at least a batter an inning, which would have put him in the top 14 pitchers in 2014. Coming off a season that saw him average 11.8 K/9 in the Minors, that seems realistic, making him a good option even if the ERA isn't terribly low. 

Verdict: It's a guess at this point, but it's likely that Sanchez and Norris will be given the two spots in the Jays rotation, with Estrada -- who made 21 relief appearances last season -- moving to the bullpen. If that looks like the case come your draft day, consider taking Norris in the late rounds as a fifth starting pitcher, especially if you used other picks on low-ERA, low-strikeout types. 

2. Andrew Heaney, Angels: Heaney has to be part of this conversation since he's basically guaranteed to start the season in the Majors following his move from the Marlins to the Dodgers to the Angels -- all in one offseason. There are a few ways to look at a guy who was moved twice in quick succession, but in the case of Heaney, look at him as a valuable trade asset and not a player who was passed around because no one wanted him. 

Heaney checks in as MLB.com's No. 25 overall prospect, thanks to a plus fastball and slider to go with exquisite control. Pitching in the top two levels of the Marlins system in 2014, he posted a 3.28 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with 143 strikeouts and 36 walks across 137 1/3 innings. His ERA climbed to 5.83 in the Majors, but with it coming in only 29 1/3 innings, concern over his potential shouldn't take a big hit. 

Projections have Heaney at an ERA just below 4.00 in the Majors this season with a K/9 in the mid-sevens and BB/9 at 2.7. The Angels would gladly take that from a No. 5 starter, but that doesn't necessarily mean the southpaw is a must-own. There will be pitchers with lower ERAs, higher strikeout rates or a little of both. Heaney's control means his biggest fantasy contribution might be in WHIP.

Verdict: Let Heaney show he's capable of meeting those projections in the Majors first, then allow him to show he's capable of beating them before considering him for your fantasy roster. 

3. Aaron Sanchez, Blue Jays: Sanchez is the other benefactor -- sad as it is to use that word -- from Stroman's injury, since he goes from a likely bullpen arm to being right back into the rotation discussion. I write "benefactor" because it's no secret that most pitchers want to start if they can and, with two open spots in the back end of the Toronto rotation, I like Sanchez's chances to work there.

Unfortunately, this might also hurt his fantasy options. While working as a starter in the Minors, Sanchez walked 4.9 batters per nine innings, and his overall numbers in the Minors in 2014 (3.95 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 5.1 BB/9 at Triple-A and Double-A) don't inspire much confidence in his immediate future in the role. When the right-hander pitched out of the bullpen in the Majors, he was stellar, posting a 1.09 ERA and 0.70 WHIP with 27 strikeouts and nine walks in 33 innings. Based on that, it'd seem to be a no-brainer that Sanchez move back to the 'pen for 2015. But with Stroman's injury and the Jays' lack of starting depth, Sanchez is likely one of the two best options based on his 70 grade fastball and 65 curveball. (I'd take him over Estrada, who had a 4.96 ERA with 27 homers allowed in 107 innings as a Brewers starter last season.) As a reliever, he had a chance to be the team's closer and rack up some valuable fantasy saves. As a starter, he's not much of a fantasy option.

Verdict: By the time your draft comes around, the Jays rotation picture should be clearer. If Sanchez looks like he's a lock, find other starting options; if they decide to go with Estrada and Norris instead, Sanchez could be an upside option in your bullpen.  

Three for later

1. Lucas Giolito, Nationals: He's only played one full season and already has undergone Tommy John surgery, but fantasy owners should be champing at the bit to take Giolito in a few years. The 6-foot-6 right-hander has the profile with a high-90s fastball, a 70-grade curveball, an improving changeup and above-average control. He showed all of that at Class A Hagerstown in 2014, where he went 10-2 with a 2.20 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 110 strikeouts and 28 walks in 98 frames. Two years removed from elbow surgery, he'll have the reins fully off and could climb as high as Double-A Harrisburg by year's end. A Major League debut could come in 2016 and from there, we might be talking about this guy as the game's next great pitcher and a must-own for years to come. 

2. Tyler Glasnow, Pirates: Glasnow, our pick for 2014 MiLBY Starting Pitcher of the Year, did nothing but put up video game-like numbers at Class A Advanced Bradenton. His 1.74 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 would make any potential fantasy owner's mouth water, even if they came three steps from the Majors. Still, the 6-foot-8 fireballer has a 12.0 career K/9, so it's not exactly news that he can rack up plenty of strikeouts. MLB.com's No. 12 overall prospect, who turns 22 in August, will be tested at Double-A Altoona and potentially Triple-A Indianapolis. And if all goes well, he'll be in the Pirates' rotation discussion by 2016 and could join Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon to form a superb young pitching core. 

3. Julio Urias, Dodgers: The Dodgers' prized left-hander has gained fame for his age alone -- he's still only 18, in case you didn't know -- but he's certainly got the stuff to match. In naming Urias its No. 8 overall prospect, MLB.com gave the Mexico native above-average grades for his fastball (70), curveball (65) and changeup (60). He handled the California League with surprising ease last summer, posting a 2.36 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 109 strikeouts over 87 2/3 innings. He'll be at Double-A Tulsa to start 2015, and there's already chatter that he could be up with the big club by the time rosters expand in September. He should already be on the radar in dynasty and keeper leagues and on everybody else's before he's legally allowed to drink in the States.

Three for in-between

Quick explainer: These are guys I think will make Major League rotations at some point in 2015, but without a definitive arrival date, they're not draft-worthy right now. Monitor their progress all the same.

1. Noah Syndergaard, Mets: Ignore his PCL-affected Triple-A numbers (4.60 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) and the silly lunch episode this spring. Syndergaard has the stuff to be considered big league-ready. His fastball can reach the upper 90s and his curve can do plenty to keep hitters off-balance. It doesn't hurt that he's got a 10.0 career K/9 and that he's never averaged higher than 2.9 BB/9. There are plenty of Major League rotations where the 22-year-old right-hander would slide right in on Opening Day, but the Mets likely will have six legitimate starting options on the MLB roster next month, and that doesn't include Rafael Montero, who also will start the season in Las Vegas but has Major League experience. I'd love to put Syndergaard at or near the top of the "for now" list, but without a solid ETA, here he shall be.

2. Alex Meyer, Twins: It's much of the same for Meyer as it is for Syndergaard. He's got a monster fastball with a pretty good slider and a complementing changeup, not to mention how he looks standing 6-foot-9 on the mound. His 2014 numbers were slightly better than his Mets counterpart (3.52 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 10.6 K/9), even if they came in the more pitcher-friendly International League. But Meyer also runs into the problem of an already planned-for rotation in Minnesota, albeit not one as good as the one in Queens. Along with fellow prospect Trevor May, Meyer is stuck in Triple-A Rochester for the time being, and it might take a few double-digit strikeout performances to finally knock down the door to the Majors.

3. Carlos Rodon, White Sox: The White Sox grabbed Rodon with the No. 3 overall pick last June after a down spring college season caused him to drop from the top spot. It didn't take long for the 22-year-old left-hander to validate tha organization's faith when he struck out 38 over 24 2/3 innings last summer. With a 65 grade fastball and 70 slider, Rodon is considered advanced enough to face Major League bats right now, but he'll likely move back to Triple-A Charlotte to start the season. The fact that he was Chicago's pick to replace an injured Chris Sale in the Cactus League rotation may be telling, though.

Relievers

Relief pitching is a sticky fantasy topic because drafting relievers (a.k.a. pitchers who don't add that many innings or individual strikeouts) for one category (saves) can take away from selecting a player who can help in multiple categories. It's not entirely frowned upon to punt saves and instead carry an additional starting pitcher rather than a low-ranked reliever. Put that together with the fact that relief prospects typically don't instantly become closers who pick up a lot of saves and you have a fantasy prospect group that you can't exactly call impact. That said, here are...

...some quick words on a couple:

Brandon Finnegan, Royals: Finnegan is the best pitcher in this group and because of his solid three-pitch mix, the Royals still aren't sure if they want him in the Major League bullpen or back in Triple-A Omaha as a starter. He's capable of strong numbers in the bigs, as he showed in the first few rounds of last year's playoff run, but would be buried behind elite relievers Greg Holland, Wade Davis and Kelvin Herrera in terms of any potential saves. 

Carson Smith, Mariners: The 25-year-old right-hander with a funky delivery was nearly untouchable in a short stint with the Mariners late last season, giving up two hits and three walks while fanning 10 over 8 1/3 scoreless frames. A return to Seattle isn't immediately assured, but he's in the mix and could provide plenty of strikeouts even in limited relief innings.

Jacob Lindgren, Yankees: Think of him as the relief version of Rodon. Lindgren was taken in the second round out of Mississippi State and showed his worth by striking out nearly two batters per inning (48 in 25 IP) while maintining a 2.16 ERA as a pro. The 22-year-old southpaw will begin the season at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre but likely will reach the Bronx at some point. Even so, Dellin Betances looks like he'll have the closer's role for quite some time, with Andrew Miller behind him should he falter.

Nick Burdi, Twins: Another 2014 second-rounder, Burdi is a little behind Lindgren developmentally but might have the higher ceiling. His fastball can touch 100 and his slider also is above-average. He's got the stuff closers are made of, but he'll need to improve his control to realize that potential. He struck out 38 but walked 10 in 20 1/3 Minor League innings last year.