For pitching awards, W's are overrated
It's not whether you win or lose, it's how you pitch the game.
Back in the olden days, BFB (Before Fantasy Baseball), there were only a few stats that people really talked about: wins, losses, ERA, walks and strikeouts.
Now fantasy geeks (and I use that term lovingly and affectionately, being one myself and being married to one for good measure) blithely throw around terms like WHIP and OPS and "pitch or ditch."
As a result, sometimes when I look at a stat line there are so many numbers that it can be hard to just extrapolate and pull out the ones that really "matter," that really tell me about a pitcher's individual effectiveness. And that is what I am trying to look for when narrowing down the candidates for that Pitcher of the Year award.
So it pains me to admit this, and I know I am probably in the minority here, but to be honest the number in the W column and, to a lesser extent, the number next to it in the L column are among the last stats I take into account when making that selection.
I want to judge a pitcher purely on what he's responsible for.
I feel like, much of the time, wins and losses are largely out of a pitcher's control. He's the one that throws strikes (or doesn't). He's the one getting the batters out (or not). But he can't control whether his team scores runs for him, or whether they make the plays behind him.
I know you can argue that often a pitcher's record is testament to whether he battled through a rough inning or outing, to how he bore down when his team wasn't giving him offensive support.
But a perfect example came two years ago.
As Minor League Editor at USA Today Sports Weekly, it was my job to choose that publication's Minor League Player and Pitcher of the Year. And the 2004 season brought the toughest choice I had ever had to make, even though to many it was a slam dunk (sorry for that cross-sports analogy).
Jeff Francis of the Colorado Rockies system was 16-3 between Double-A Tulsa and Triple-A Colorado Springs, striking out 196 batters while walking just 29 in 154 2/3 innings. He was such an overwhelming choice by many media outlets that some chose him their outright Minor League Player of the Year over such hitters as Ryan Howard (.291 with 46 homers and 131 RBIs, to me a very easy choice for Player of the Year).
But I agonized over the decision between Francis and the less-ballyhooed Pittsburgh southpaw Zach Duke.
Between Class A Lynchburg, where he was named Carolina League Pitcher of the Year, and Double-A Altoona, Duke had gone 15-6 with a 1.46 ERA, striking out 142 while walking 30 in 148 1/3 innings.
To some, the decision seemed simple. What was my problem?
But a closer look at the numbers showed that Duke's teams had scored a total of eight runs in his six losses. With any kind of run support at all, that 15-6 record could have been instead a 20-win season, to go with one of the best ERAs by a starting pitcher in a full season in recent memory.
In addition, Duke was the single most consistent pitcher in the Minors that year. Even with his glittery numbers, Francis got hammered a few times in between the brilliance. Duke never did.
In the end, I went with Francis more for his .194 average against (compared to Duke's not-too-shabby .218), his better walk:strikeout ratio and the fact that he pitched at a higher level and in a tougher pitchers' league as my determining factors.
I'm not saying wins and losses don't matter. All other things being equal, I will certainly factor those stats into the equation.
Oh, and in case you were wondering, my favorite stat? Average against.
This year, happily, I am no longer the sole decision-maker but rather part of a decision-making team.
But some of the names that I will be throwing into the hat are pitchers who have had outstanding seasons but have not fared well in the almighty W-L column. Here are a few who I think deserve serious consideration for Pitcher of the Year honors, even if they haven't been "winning" per se:
Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers: Between Class A Brevard County and Double-A Huntsville, the 20-year-old right-hander is leading the Minors with 172 strikeouts in 140 innings, posting a 1.80 ERA while scattering 94 hits. For all of that, he's 9-5.
Kevin Slowey, Minnesota Twins: Okay, I admit that Slowey will have a hard time even winning his own organization's Pitcher of the Year award since he'll have to beat out Matt Garza, who was 14-4 with a 1.99 ERA and 154 strikeouts in 135 2/3 innings while cruising through three levels en route to the Majors in his first full season. But Slowey, a second-round pick in 2005 out of Winthrop, has certainly put up the numbers to be mentioned in the same breath: a 1.88 ERA between Class A Fort Myers and Double-A New Britain, 151 strikeouts and just 22 walks in 148 2/3 innings and the not-to-be-beaten record of having struck out three batters on nine pitches as the starter in the Florida State League All-Star Game. Oh, and he's just 8-5.
Scott Lewis, Cleveland Indians: Like Slowey, Lewis will have to contend with one of his own organization-mates, Class A Kinston southpaw Chuck Lofgren, who is 15-5 with a 2.46 ERA. Lewis' 3-1 record has not been so much a question of bad luck on the decision front as it has been his having been limited in his innings due to two years' worth of arm and shoulder woes. He's only had the minimum five innings to qualify for a win five times. The first three times he combined for 15 innings, no earned runs, no decisions. He's floated on and off the official leader board, fluctuating by day as to whether he has enough innings to qualify. When he is on the board, he leads all full-season Minor League starters with a 1.40 ERA, striking out 107 batters in 96 1/3 innings while giving up 70 hits. More important, for Lewis and the Indians, he has not missed a start this season. He's given up one earned run in his last four starts.
A few others worth mentioning in the context of this column, even though they're not in the mix for Minor League Pitcher of the Year:
Scott Elbert, Los Angeles Dodgers: The Dodgers' likely Minor League Pitcher of the Year, the former first-rounder has combined for a 2.69 ERA and 152 strikeouts in 124 innings between Class A Vero Beach and Double-A Jacksonville despite a 9-8 record.
Edinson Volquez, Texas Rangers: With 130 strikeouts in 120 innings and a 3.21 ERA at Triple-A Oklahoma, the V of the Rangers' famed DVD Boys, is just 6-6.
Carlos Carrasco, Philadelphia Phillies: One of the hottest pitchers in the Minors right now, coming off a combined no-hitter for his Class A Lakewood BlueClaws, he's allowed three earned runs in his last five starts, a span of 33 innings in which he's struck out 40, improving his ERA to a sparkling 2.25 despite a 9-6 record.
Lisa Winston is a reporter for MLB.com.