MiLB's AL East predictions in the ballpark
Here at MiLB.com, we stand by what we write. Even if it makes us look bad. With that in mind, we're going team-by-team to see just how prescient -- or foolish -- we were back before the 2006 season began.
These were our prognostications for the AL East.
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Organization MVP: In a system that's a little pitching-heavy, Jeff Fiorentino stands out as someone who could be special with the bat. He wasn't ready for the bigs last year, but he'll certainly be ready for Double-A Bowie, where it wouldn't be surprising to see a big power spike.
The Orioles gave their Player of the Year award, named for Brooks Robinson, to Cory Keylor. Fiorentino had a decent year with Bowie, hitting .275 in 104 games and again seeing some big-league time (39 ABs). There wasn't a power spike, though, as he hit 13 homers and 14 doubles for a .413 SLG, a big drop from his 2005 total.
Cy on the farm: Radhames Liz held New York-Penn League hitters to a .188 average, striking out 82 in 56 IP. The South Atlantic League was a little tougher for him, but if he can completely trust all of his stuff as he moves up, he's going to take off.
The O's Pitcher of the Year award is named for Jim Palmer. This year it went to Jim Hoey, the reliever who went from the South Atlantic League to the big leagues in one season. In many ways, Liz was dominant, especially before he was promoted from Frederick to Bowie. In the Carolina League, Liz held hitters to a .196 batting average and struck out 95 in 83 innings en route to a 2.82 ERA and an All-Star Game appearance. Things got a little harder in Double-A, though he still struck out more than a batter an inning. He finished the year with 149 K's (and 75 walks) in 133 1/3 combined innings.
The K corner: A year after striking out 110 in 46 relief appearances, reliever Chris Britton will bring his act to the Eastern League and again finish in the top 10 in strikeouts without starting a single game.
This might have come true if he had stayed in Bowie for any length of time. Britton had 24 K's in 16 Double-A innings. He spent most of the year, though, in the big leagues, where the K rate went down some (41 K's in 53 2/3 IP), though he was quite effective. The O's traded him to the Yankees this offseason in the Jaret Wright deal.
End result: It was a tough trip through Baltimore, as we went 0-for-3.
BOSTON RED SOX
Organizational MVP: Jacoby Ellsbury. He'll start the year in Wilmington, but don't expect him to stay for long. He could very well lead the organization in batting average, on-base percentage and stolen bases en route to being ready to hit Boston by late 2007.
The Red Sox gave Jeff Natale their organizational Player of the Year award, but we'd like to demand a recount. Taking nothing from Natale, who had a nice year between the South Atlantic League and Carolina League, Ellsbury was outstanding, a year younger and a rung ahead of Natale. As predicted, he started in Wilmington, but was moved to Double-A after 61 games. Combined, he hit .303 with 41 steals and a .382 on-base percentage. He also helped the Portland Sea Dogs win their first Eastern League title.
Cy on the farm: Jon Lester would be the easy pick here, but instead the honor will go to Michael Bowden, who'll make it to Wilmington before season's end and show that high school pitchers can move quickly too.
Well, he did make it to Wilmington, albeit for just one regular-season start. He tacked on a good playoff start after that. Bowden spent the rest of the year with Greenville and pitched well. He went 9-6 with a 3.51 ERA over 107 2/3 innings, walking 31 and striking out 118. Turned out that Clay Buchholz was a bit better, going 11-4 with a 2.42 ERA and 140 strikeouts (only 33 walks) over 119 innings between the same two levels, making him a deserving Pitcher of the Year.
Team of the year: Pawtucket. The offense should be nice, led by Dustin Pedroia, David Murphy and perhaps Brandon Moss, but it's the pitching staff that will make it worth going to see the PawSox play. A rotation headed by Lester, Abe Alvarez and David Pauley handing off to a deep bullpen of Craig Hansen, Cla Meredith and Manny Delcarmen should be the pride of the International League.
If you can be the pride of a league and finish next-to-last in team ERA, then we nailed this one. The PawSox had a 4.29 ERA when all was said and done. Lester, of course, spent a great deal of time in the big leagues, Pauley split time between Double- and Triple-A and even hit the bigs for three starts. Much of that bullpen shuttled back and forth between Pawtucket and Boston, and the PawSox ended the year with a 69-75 season.
Power surprise: The Red Sox may not have anyone that jumps out as a pure power prospect, but look for Ian Bladergroen -- healthy for the first time in two years -- to bust out and build on what he started back in 2004, when he had a .595 slugging percentage. Most may have forgotten that the first baseman was a junior college home run champion when he hit 32 bombs back in 2003.
Bladergroen only got 331 at-bats with Wilmington in 2006. He hit .242 and slugged .408 in that span, not exactly the breakout we were looking for. He homered nine times to go along with 20 doubles and four triples, but still far shy of what we predicted.
End result: Technically, we went 0-for-4 here, but we're taking credit for predicting Ellsbury's fantastic first full season, giving us a .250 average in Boston.
NEW YORK YANKEES
Organizational MVP: Eric Duncan. He'll take the lessons learned during a trying 2005 season and the success from the AFL to have a big 2006 in Columbus and show he's ready for the Bronx in 2007.
Ummm, not quite. Duncan suffered through some injuries and didn't seem ready for Triple-A in 2006. After 31 games, a .209 average and a trip to the DL, he went back down to Double-A. He hit just .248 over 57 games with Trenton, but some of the pop did come back (10 homers, 15 doubles). The 2007 season should be a big one for the former first-round pick. As for player of the year, the Yankees haven't announced it yet, but it could be Cody Ehlers or Brett Gardner.
Cy on the farm: Tyler Clippard. While the easy pick would be Phil Hughes in the Florida State League, the pick here is that Clippard will again pile up some huge numbers, first in Trenton and then to destinations unknown.
Not as far off track as the Duncan pick. Hughes will probably get the nod after his season in the Eastern League (he made just five FSL starts), but Clippard had a fine season, also with Trenton. He finished tied for second in the system with 12 wins and led the organization with 175 strikeouts. His 3.35 ERA over 166 1/3 innings was good for seventh in the Eastern League, he held hitters to a .200 average and he pitched a nine-inning, complete-game no-hitter in August.
Level leaper of the year: Brett Gardner. J. Brent Cox may get the press as a guy making it to the bigs quickly, but Gardner could make a couple of jumps in 2006, starting in Tampa and perhaps even making a September showing in the Bronx.
It turned out to be just one jump, but it was quite a season for the speedy outfielder. After hitting .323 with a .433 OBP and 30 steals in 63 games with Tampa, he moved up to Double-A and hit .272 over 55 games. He used a .352 OBP to help him steal 28 more bases. For the season, he stole 58 in 70 attempts, finishing with a combined .298 average and .395 OBP.
Most likely to go 30-30: Tim Battle. The speed is already there; all he needs is slightly better pitch recognition to bring up the power numbers.
He got the steals part, does that count for something? Battle couldn't hack the Florida State League, hitting .133 over 36 games, so he headed back to Charleston. There, he hit .265 with 24 steals over 94 games. Overall, he finished with 30 steals on the nose, but he only hit six homers (and just 28 extra-base hits in total). The pitch recognition thing didn't happen as Battle struck out 142 times in 130 games, while drawing just 32 walks.
Best affiliate to visit: Charleston. Aside from the climate, this is the place to go to see some of the most athletic prospects in the game. The RiverDogs should have C.J. Henry at short, Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata in the outfield, a trio that has enough tools to make Tim Allen jealous.
We should be penalized just for that awful TV reference. That being said, Charleston had an interesting season. They didn't make the playoffs, but they did finish with a 78-62 overall record, the third-best in the South Atlantic League. Henry didn't have a very good season with Charleston, then got traded to the Phillies and eventually Sally champion Lakewood in the Bobby Abreu deal. Tabata and Jackson were both South Atlantic League All-Stars. Tabata also went to the Futures Game and has as much buzz as any young prospect in baseball. Jackson's season was a little more uneven, but he swiped 37 bases and if he can make better contact (151 K's, but with a nice 61 walks), he'll be even better in the future.
End result: We'll be kind to ourselves and say we went 2-for-5, hitting on the Gardner and Charleston predictions.
TAMPA BAY DEVIL RAYS
Organizational MVP: Not Delmon Young. OK, that's a copout, but it would be even easier to actually pick him, considering that he was the MVP of all Minor League Baseball last year, right? Surely he won't be at Durham long enough to win this award. Then again, he didn't have to stay at Montgomery long to win the Southern League MVP last year.
Actually, he was at Durham long enough, though not on the field for that 50-game stretch. When he did play, Young was good, hitting .316 with 22 steals over 86 games before hitting .317 in 30 games for the Rays in the big leagues. Truth be told, though, he wasn't the best player performance-wise in the system this year. Reid Brignac, who led the organization with a .321 average, finished third with 24 homers and second with 99 RBIs and helped Montgomery win the Southern League title, deservedly got the organizational award from the Rays.
Cy on the Farm: Chuck Tiffany could be out to prove himself with his new club in '06, but the jump from the Florida State League to the Southern League, while technically only one level, is a big one. Andrew Sonnanstine was definitely the "Cy on the Farm" last year, winning the system's Triple Crown (W, ERA and K) despite having to serve time in the Cal League. A repeat there or at Montgomery would be tough, though, and it's more likely that one of the young guns -- Wade Davis or Jacob McGee -- will rack up impressive numbers at a low level. Both could excel, but it's hard not to pick Davis.
We mentioned just about every pitcher in the system, didn't we? Tiffany pitched just 15 2/3 innings all season. Davis did indeed have a fine season, with a 3.02 ERA and 165 strikeouts in 146 innings with Southwest Michigan. He finished second in the organization in strikeouts. The guy who beat him was McGee. McGee whiffed 171 in 134 innings and had a 2.96 ERA, second in the organization among full-season pitchers. He was topped only by Sonnanstine, who didn't mind the jump to Double-A at all. He finished third in strikeouts, but once again topped the organization in wins and ERA to be a repeat winner of the Pitcher of the Year award.
Team of the Year: Davis and McGee could be joined by guys like Jeremy Hellickson, Derek Feldkamp and possibly Aaron Walker at Southwest Michigan, making for one tough rotation. On the flip side, if Young, B.J. Upton, Wes Bankston, Shawn Riggans and perhaps Elijah Dukes are all in Durham, International League pitchers will not enjoy facing that lineup.
Davis and McGee were indeed quite a one-two punch in the Midwest League, but it wasn't enough to get Southwest Michigan into the Midwest League playoffs. Durham finished in second place in its division, but it was six games under .500, 15.5 games out and with a litany of well-documented problems. No, the true team of the year was the Montgomery Biscuits, the Southern League champions.
25 by 21: OK, fine. Young is with the big club no later than May. He joins Mel Ott, Tony Conigliaro, A-Rod, Junior, Frank Robinson, Mickey Mantle, Al Kaline, Ted Williams, Orlando Cepeda and Eddie Mathews as the only players in Major League history to hit 25 or more home runs before turning 21.
Can we re-phrase? Young didn't get called up until late in the year, largely because of the long suspension. He's got three big-league homers to his name, so he needs just 22 to get to 25 at the age of 21, which is not nothing. The Rays sat him down at the very end of the year so he'd be the front-runner for American League Rookie of the Year in 2007.
End result: Tampa wasn't kind to us. Couldn't buy a hit as we went 0-for-4.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Organization MVP: And the winner is ... Adam Lind. It's tough not to like everything this kid has going for him. He's just a flat-out hitter who is fun to watch at the plate and should continue to rack up some impressive numbers in '06.
The Jays don't give out an overall award, instead awarding a player at each level. Still, there's little chance anyone other than Lind would have won an organization-wide award. He led the system with his .330 average in the Minors, finished third in homers (24) and tied for second in RBIs (89). To add to that, he hit .367 and slugged .600 in 18 big-league games at the end of the year.
Pitcher of the Year: The easy pick would be to go with Ricky Romero or Dustin McGowan, but the selection here is Josh Banks. He's stubborn and durable on the mound and has the stuff to be a solid, middle-of-the-rotation guy. Banks chews up innings and could put together a 12- to 15-win season in the International League.
Chi-Hung Cheng might be the choice for an overall Pitcher of the Year award after going 11-5 and leading the organization in ERA (2.70) and strikeouts (154) for Lansing. Banks did chew up innings -- 170 2/3 to be exact -- and he did reach double digits in wins with 10. But he also lost 11 games and finished with a 5.17 ERA for Syracuse in 2006.
Team of the Year: Syracuse seems like the logical selection. They'll have some top-notch pitching for at least part of the season, with many of the best hurlers crisscrossing the Northeast between New Hampshire and Syracuse. At some point Lind should be there, and with Brandon League and McGowan also checking in eventually, fun should be had by all in upstate New York.
It's hard to imagine too much fun was had with Syracuse finishing 64-79 and in last place in the IL's North Division. Banks, Jamie Vermilyea, Josh Towers, McGowan, Brandon League, David Purcey, Davis Romero and Shaun Marcum (among others) all did make stops there -- as did Lind on the offensive side -- but it never clicked for the Chiefs. Lansing was the best team in the organization, finishing with a 72-65 overall record.
Where'd he come from? Ryan Roberts has quietly gone about his business, moving across the diamond from third base to second base as he's worked his way up through the Jays system. He showed some pop in his bat last year (24 HRs, 79 RBIs), but is faced with the prospect of cracking a stellar young Toronto infield. After starting the year in Syracuse, look for him to be one of the first players called up should a bench position open or a spot starter be needed north of the border.
Sort of? Roberts did play reasonably well with Syracuse, hitting .273 in 98 games. The power dropped, with 10 homers and 28 doubles in 362 at-bats, but he did make it to Toronto. However, it was just for nine games and 13 at-bats, during which he managed just one hit. To his credit, that one hit was a homer.
He's gonna make it after all: After what seemed to be an interminable climb through the Minor Leagues, first with the Yankees and then Toronto, John-Ford Griffin had a big 2005 in Syracuse and finally got rewarded with a callup at season's end. Griffin may have finally broken through the barrier that will let him earn a spot on the bench this year.
Injuries have really held Griffin back. He appeared in just 60 games, all with Triple-A Syracuse, and hit .225 with six homers. That's a far cry from the 30-homer, 103-RBI season he had in 2005.
End result: We'll take credit for Lind and take a 1-for-5 in Canada.
AL EAST OVERALL RECORD: They say playing in the AL East is tough. We learned that first-hand by going 4-for-21 for .190 average.
Jonathan Mayo is a reporter for MLB.com.