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Toolshed: The prospect trade market

Which farm systems are in the best position for a blockbuster deal?
July 20, 2016

Last Thursday brought our first major prospect trade of the 2016 season as the Red Sox shipped Anderson Espinoza, MLB.com's No. 34 overall prospect, to the Padres for Drew Pomeranz. As surprising as it was to see such a highly regarded prospect on the move, the trade made sense given Boston's need for starting pitching and the volatility that comes with 18-year-old hurlers who have yet to prove themselves above Class A.

But if there's one thing that deal proved, it's that this year's trade deadline season could be a seller's market. Only 11 of Major League Baseball's 30 clubs are more than six games out of a playoff spot -- meaning most teams may feel like they have a chance to contend and could be looking to buy ahead of this year's Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline.

Of course, not all buyers are created equal. Some organizations are better built with the prospects that typically triggers a summer blockbuster. Here are six farm systems that have the talent pools in place to get something substantial done over the next few weeks.

Texas Rangers: The Rangers might be the team most set up to make a prospect-laden deal ahead of this year's deadline. Joey Gallo has long been the most exciting prospect in the system, and that remains the case this year as he's produced a .930 OPS with 16 homers in 64 games with Triple-A Round Rock. He's also blocked at third base by Adrian Beltre, and even some time at first base hasn't been enough to push Mitch Moreland off the spot at the Major League level. It's looking more and more like Gallo could be a valuable trade chip in the Rangers' pursuit of starting pitching or a catcher. (Brewers backstop Jonathan Lucroy is an oft-rumored target.) If Texas decides MLB.com's No. 7 overall prospect truly is off-limits, they still have consensus top-100 prospects Lewis Brinson or Luis Ortiz as well as 2016 breakout prospect Yohander Mendez -- a 21-year-old lefty whose stock has never been higher -- and Dillon Tate, who has struggled at Class A Hickory but is still only one year removed from being the No. 4 overall pick in the Draft.

Boston Red Sox: The Sox may be done making any big trades following Pomeranz's arrival, but the way the system is set up, they could still make a blockbuster if they wanted -- and you can never count out Dave Dombrowski. Boston still possesses three of its big four prospects in Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers and may have the Minors' hardest-throwing starter in Michael Kopech, who has reportedly touched 105 mph in limited action this summer. Of course, Moncada should be considered as untouchable as they come given the way he's put it all together in his second stateside season, and Benintendi looks very much like the missing piece in Boston's outfield. Devers and Kopech might be untouchable in other systems, but Dombrowski isn't shy when it comes to trading top prospects to make a deal. Even after Pomeranz, the Red Sox could still use more help in the rotation, and if a young, controllable potential top-line starter such as Sonny Gray were to become available, Boston has the pieces to get a deal done.

Chicago Cubs: The Cubs don't appear to have as many holes as other contenders, but they are reportedly searching for help in the bullpen with Yankees left-hander Andrew Miller often bandied about as a target. New York is reportedly looking for catcher/outfielder Kyle Schwarber, who is out for the season with a torn ACL, in such a deal, according to Jeff Passan. There's certainly a framework for a deal there, given the way the Yankees' search for young Major League-ready talent and the Cubs' desire for that elusive World Series title. But if Chicago can talk New York (or any other team with top relievers to offer) into players a little further down the chain, there are still plenty of enticing pieces there as well. Even after the ascension of their top talent to the Majors, the Cubs still have their own Big Three in shortstop Gleyber Torres, second baseman Ian Happ and outfielder Eloy Jimenez. Right-hander Duane Underwood and outfielder Billy McKinney also currently rank among MLB.com's top 100 prospects, although neither is expected to stick there much longer. A lot of systems would love to add one or two of those prospects for a reliever, and the Cubs may never have a bigger reason to pay a high price than they do with this current group.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Have you heard the Dodgers could use starting pitching? This summer, that's not coming cheap. Luckily, the Dodgers might have the assets to pull something off. The organization had MiLB.com's top farm system at the beginning of the season, and although that's probably not still the case given the graduation of Corey Seager, there are a lot of prospects that other teams could ask for in return for a starter. No, Julio Urias isn't likely one of them. Beyond him, though, outfielder Alex Verdugo and first baseman Cody Bellinger have become top-100 mainstays with their performances at Double-A Tulsa at the ages of 20 and 21, respectively. Right-hander Grant Holmes would be an interesting option for a potential swap for a rebuilding club with his potential as a No. 2-type starter combined with the fact that he won't be helping the Dodgers any time soon as a pitcher still at Class A Advanced. Also don't forget the injured Frankie Montas, who has made only seven appearances in the Minors this season but is 23 and possesses the killer stuff any organization could find a place for. The Rays make a lot of sense as a partner with Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore reportedly on the market, giving them a chance to add to their stable of prospects currently led by shortstop Willy Adames and Brent Honeywell.

Washington Nationals: The Nats' inclusion here is by no means an indication that Lucas Giolito or Trea Turner are going anywhere in a trade. Either would make for a great prospect headliner in the blockbuster of the summer, but with both getting Major League experience this summer, it's unlikely Washington will ship key cogs in their long-term future for immediate help. Even breakout star Victor Robles is probably off the table with the growth he's shown as a 19-year-old in his first full season. Instead, the Nationals' desire for bullpen help and potentially a center fielder could be fulfilled if they're willing to part with some of their top arms, namely Reynaldo Lopez or Erick Fedde -- both of whom rank among the game's top 100 prospects but don't have the high ceilings of Giolito, Turner or Fedde. Even Austin Voth or A.J. Cole could represent some value given the way they've performed at the highest level of the Minors. Shortstop Wilmer Difo is blocked by Turner and Danny Espinosa but provides plenty of value with his plus speed.

Cleveland Indians: At 55-38, the Tribe owns the best record in the American League and looks comfortable atop the American League Central with a 6 1/2 game lead over the Tigers. That makes them easy buyers at this year's deadline with the bullpen being a key area of need, as pointed out by Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti. Again, that calls to mind the left-handed duo of Miller and Chapman, and ESPN's Keith Law even reported Tuesday that two Yankees scouts went to see Class A Advanced Lynchburg on Tuesday, likely to catch top-100 prospects Justus Sheffield and Bobby Bradley. Beyond those two, it's been a banner year for Indians prospects with catcher Francisco Mejia, right-hander Mike Clevinger and right-hander Triston McKenzie all doing their part to increase their stock. Of course, the crown jewels in Cleveland's prospect crown are Double-A Akron outfielders Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier, but with outfield another area of need, the Indians might not have any desire to ship away the future of their offense to patch a different hole. That's especially the case if Cleveland believes either will be ready to help the big club during the stretch run. Still, there are enough pieces here to make the Major League club better if the Indians can work the right deal.

Sam Dykstra is a reporter for MiLB.com. Follow and interact with him on Twitter, @SamDykstraMiLB.