Fantasy 411: The Futures Exchange
Focusing on the first round, most were college pitchers, meaning they're meant to move quickly. Some have already begun their ascent. Others may take a little longer. Here's a look at the starters and what their futures may hold.
Ricky Romero, LHP, Blue Jays: The No. 6 overall pick has pitched well for Dunedin in the Class A Advanced Florida State League and is readying for the playoffs as we speak. I could see a scenario where the polished lefty starts the year in Double-A and sees Toronto before the 2006 season is over, with 2007 being the time when he'd have a real fantasy impact. He's a polished guy and won't strike out too many, but he also won't walk too many, promising a decent WHIP at the very least.
Wade Townsend, RHP, Devil Rays: The one-time Rice standout who sat out last year went No. 8 overall for the second straight year, and perhaps the rust showed in his pro debut. He had a 5.49 ERA in 39 1/3 innings, struggling with his command (24 walks). He did finish with a flourish, tossing six shutout innings in his final start. He'll go to the Arizona Fall League and if he excels there, put him on the fast track and look for him by the beginning of 2007, at the latest.
Mike Pelfrey, RHP, Mets: So much for taking care of starting pitching in the draft for the Mets. Last year's top pick, Philip Humber, had Tommy John surgery this year. Pelfrey, taken No. 9 overall, hasn't signed yet. If and when he does come to terms, Pelfrey could be the kind of pitcher who skyrockets through the system to New York in a hurry. Of course, I said the same thing about Humber last year. Some scouts thought Pelfrey was the only pitcher in the draft with true ace potential. But he has to sign first and missing this summer won't help get him to the big leagues any faster.
Lance Broadway, RHP, White Sox: Several dominant performances down the stretch against top college opponents moved Broadway into the top half of the draft (No. 15). He went straight to the advanced Carolina League and while he's allowed 68 hits and posted a 4.58 ERA in 55 IP (he may have tired in August), he's also struck out more than a batter an inning (58). You have to figure he starts 2006 in Double-A and you know how many pitchers have made that jump to the bigs recently.
Chris Volstad, RHP, Marlins: Considered to be the top high school arm by some, Volstad has the body type (long, lanky) that often means a very high ceiling. The No. 16 overall pick's stuff is already really good, as he's shown in the GCL and the mostly college-laded NY-Penn League (2.13 ERA, 29 K in 38 IP). As he grows into his body, his stuff may get even better. Getting that much time in the NY-P league now puts him ahead of the curve of other high schoolers, setting him on a course for a possible 2007 debut.
Cesar Carrillo, LHP, Padres: Some scouts were wary of Carrillo coming out of Miami because of his size, but his dominant performance and his stuff moved him to No. 18 overall. There was some talk this summer of him coming up to help the Padres after he rose up to Double-A and pitched well there (4-0, 3.23 ERA, 35 K in 30 2/3 IP). But that never materialized and he went back down to the California League in late August presumably for the playoffs, but he has not pitched well in his return. Still, an offseason of rest and work could put him on a path for a 2006 big league debut.
Mark Pawelek, LHP, Cubs: Taken No. 20, Pawalek was one of three high schoolers taken in the first 30 picks. He's very complete for a high schooler, with command of four pitches. He's also a lefty with a plus fastball, so he could evolve into a top of the rotation kind of guy. He got his feet wet in the Arizona League, striking out 56 in 43 IP while posting a 2.72 ERA before moving up to Boise for a Northwest League playoff push. That could put him ahead of the curve, but it'll be 2008 before you have to worry about him fantasy-wise.
Aaron Thompson, LHP, Marlins: Thompson was a little bit of a surprise at No. 22 because of signability concerns, but the Marlins got it done. To give you an idea of just how polished he is, he's handling the fairly advanced short-season NY-Penn League, against college talent, very well. Thompson had a 2.45 ERA in four starts with Jamestown spanning 14 1/3 IP after throwing 32 innings (and striking out 41) in the Gulf Coast League. Florida has no problems pushing young pitchers, but expect to wait two more years when he can challenge Pawelek for top rookie lefty in 2008.
Brian Bogusevic, LHP, Astros: The No. 24 pick was a two-way player, but the Astros see his future on the mound, and there are those who think he could move quickly and improve vastly now that he's a pitcher only. But he's had a tough go of it pitching out of the bullpen for Tri-City in the NY-Penn League. In 21 1/3 IP, he's allowed 18 earned runs for a 7.59 ERA. You might be able to chalk it up to fatigue from a long college season with Tulane, and see how he does with an offseason and Spring Training next year. I wouldn't fast track him, but if he starts putting it together next year, 2007 isn't out of the question.
Matt Garza, RHP, Twins: Garza's stock rose as much as anyone heading into the draft and he landed at No. 25 after being the ace for a subpar Fresno State team. He made a brief stop for four starts with Elizabethton in the Appy League, then moved to full-season Beloit, where his 3.54 ERA and 64 K's (against just 15 walks) in 56 IP helped the Snappers reach the Midwest League playoffs. I see a scenario where he moves up to Fort Myers to start the year in 2006, gets promoted to Double-A before the year's out, making him ready for the bigs at some point in 2007 if all goes well. The 6-foot-4 righty has plus stuff which should play as a dependable starter at the highest level.
Jacob Marceaux, RHP, Marlins: Think the Marlins loaded up on pitching in the first round? They went college this time with a guy who kind of snuck into the first round because his stuff was explosive at McNeese State. He hasn't pitched well in his debut this summer, but he did make it to the full-season South Atlantic League. If Florida keeps pushing him and he finds success in the FSL next year, he could reach Miami by 2007, 2008 at the latest. Track his progress because he is a guy who could eventually be moved to the 'pen and become a top short reliever.
Jonathan Mayo is a reporter for MLB.com.