Eastern League Southern playoff preview
(Best-of-5 series begins Wednesday, Sep. 5.)
Things in the Eastern League's Southern Division aren't that much different from the American League Central. The Akron Aeros, a Cleveland affiliate, and Erie SeaWolves, Detroit's Double-A farm team, have been battling all season for Southern Division supremacy. Just 1 1/2 games separated the two rivals when all was said and done. On Wednesday, they'll begin to settle their differences once and for all -- at least for this season. This will be the third straight season Akron has made the playoffs, including last year's loss in the championship series to Portland. Erie hasn't played postseason baseball since 2004 and has never made it out of the first round.
REGULAR-SEASON SERIES
The teams played 28 games against each other, but left very few clues about who might be the better club. Erie did win the season series, 15-13, but nearly all the games could have gone either way. Seventeen of the 28 games were decided by two runs or fewer. The number goes to 20 if you include contests where the margin of victory was three runs or fewer.
The SeaWolves did outscore the Aeros by a margin of 129-115, thanks to an Erie sweep of Akron in July and some uncharacteristically poor starts by Aeros pitchers. In the last series, the two teams played on August 20-22, the SeaWolves took two of three from the Aeros.
HEAD-TO-HEAD STATS
Akron: OF Trevor Crowe led the team with four homers and 17 RBIs against the SeaWolves, but batted just .252. DH Michael Aubrey hit .407, although it was in just seven games as he joined the Aeros late in the season. 1B Jordan Brown hit .310 with 13 runs scored and eight doubles. J.D. Martin was 1-1 with a 2.04 ERA in four starts against Erie, but staff aces Chuck Lofgren and Scott Lewis went a combined 0-7 with a 5.84 ERA. Closer Randy Newsom had three saves in as many chances and struck out six batters in 6 2/3 innings.
Erie: OF Matt Joyce clubbed three home runs and 15 RBIs on top of hitting .300 against the Aeros. OF Clete Thomas hit .291 with 15 RBIs and 20 runs scored, but struck out a staggering 24 times in 103 at-bats. DH Jackson Melian had a .321 average on 27 hits, 11 of which went for extra bases. Staff ace Dallas Trahern was 2-0 with a 3.93 ERA in three starts. RHP Eddie Bonine picked up five of his 14 wins against the Aeros. Southpaw Jonathan Connolly went 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA in five games (four starts).
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Game 1: Akron at Erie
Chuck Lofgren (12-7, 4.37 ERA) vs. Eddie Bonine (14-5, 3.90 ERA)
Game 2: Akron at Erie
Eric DuBose (1-2, 9.61 ERA) or Shawn Nottingham (9-12, 4.77 ERA) vs. Burke Badenhop (2-0, 1.45 ERA)
Game 3: Erie at Akron
Scott Lewis (7-9, 3.68 ERA) vs. Andrew Kown (6-8, 4.12 ERA)
Game 4: Erie at Akron (if necessary)
TBD vs. Dallas Trahern (12-6, 3.87 ERA)
Game 5: Akron at Erie (if necessary)
TBD
ON THE MOUND
Akron:
Chuck Lofgren has arguably been the Aeros' best pitcher. The southpaw tied for third in the league in wins (12) and ranked third in strikeouts with 123. At times, Lofgren struggled with his command, but when he's on, Lofgren is tough. Scott Lewis was right behind Lofgren all season with several quality performances. The lefty went 7-9 with a 3.68 ERA and was fifth in the EL in strikeouts with 121. Randy Newsom is the Aeros go-to guy with the game on the line in the ninth. Newsom finished with a 3.17 ERA and converted 18 of 20 save opportunities.
Erie:
Dallas Trahern -- the Southern Division starter in the Eastern League All-Star Game -- has been an absolute horse for the SeaWolves. Trahern hurled 162 2/3 innings -- tops in the EL -- and also tossed three complete games, which tied for first on the circuit. For the season, Trahern went 12-6 with a 2.87 ERA. Andrew Kown posted a solid season for the SeaWolves. Kown had a 4.12 ERA over 120 innings with one complete game. Alan Mills made sure Trahern and Kown's starts stood up, converting 23 of 24 save opportunities. Mills was spectacular at the end of games as he compiled a 2.79 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 29 innings.
AT THE PLATE
Akron:
Jordan Brown was named the Eastern League's Most Valuable Player and Rookie of the Year last week. Since 1996, only four players -- Ryan Howard (2004), Marlon Byrd (2001), Calvin Pickering (1998) and Vladimir Guerrero (1996) -- have earned both honors in the same year. Brown led the league in batting average (.333) and hits (161). Trevor Crowe has been a key cog for the Aeros all year. Despite hitting only .257, Crowe led the Aeros in runs scored with 85 and stolen bases with 28. He finished second on the team in hits (132). Michael Aubrey was superb down the stretch for the Aeros with a .345 batting average, 15 RBIs and three home runs in August.
Erie:
Jeff Larish has been producing runs for Erie all season. The power hitter led the Eastern League in both RBIs (101) and home runs (28). The lefty also walked an impressive 87 times. Clete Thomas was the man coming home on many of Larish's RBIs. The fleet-footed Thomas scored 96 times this season, best in the EL. He also collected 148 hits in 137 games. Since returning from Triple-A, Nick Trzesniak has been a solid contributor for the SeaWolves. In 33 games, the catcher is hitting .299 with 16 RBIs and three homers.
HISTORY LESSONS
Akron has been a mainstay in the Eastern League Playoffs in recent years, having missed the postseason just once since 2002. The Aeros won the championship in both 2003 and 2005, and reached the finals under current manager Tim Bogar last year against Portland. Bogar and the Aeros are no strangers to playoff pressure and will certainly be looking for a little redemption. For the SeaWolves, this is their first postseason appearance since 2004, when they were swept by Altoona. Erie made the playoffs in 1999 and 2001, but have yet to win a series.
SERIES COULD TURN ON
Akron's speed could be a huge factor in the series. The Aeros tallied an Eastern-League best 146 stolen bases, and manager Tim Bogar isn't afraid to give his base runners the green light. If speedsters like Trevor Crowe (28 steals) and Argenis Reyes (27 steals) are able to get on base, they could disrupt Erie's pitching and defense. This could be devastating for the SeaWolves, since their pitching, which ranks third in the league in ERA, has been their bread and butter all season. The Aeros could also be facing a question of team leadership. Brian Barton and Asdrubal Cabrera -- key contributors for most of the season -- were promoted to Buffalo in the second half of the year. Both were All-Stars and ranked in the top 10 in batting average. Barton was a veteran who played for the Aeros in last year's playoffs.
PREDICTION
This is a tough series to call. Both teams have similar records and they rank third (Erie) and fourth (Akron) in pitching. However, history suggests picking the team riding the hotter streak. The Aeros have won six of their last seven contests while the SeaWolves are 2-4 in the last week. Akron's speed and ability to manufacture runs should be pivotal as runs are always at a premium in the playoffs. Look for Akron's and manager Tim Bogar's experience to show throughout the series. Akron in five.
Evan Mohl is an associate reporter for MLB.com.