A Look at Red Sox Rookies' Impact in 2014
A number of standouts from the 2013 MiLB season figure to have a heavy impact in the Major Leagues in 2014, most notably the Red Sox Xander Bogaerts and Jackie Bradley Jr. With the help of the folks who produce Steamer projections (collected from Fangraphs), here's a look at some prospects who could impact the standings in MLB.
SS Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox
(Steamer Projections)
650 (PA) 583 (AB) 16 (HR) 53 (BB) 127 (SO) 9 (SB) 6 (CS) .261 (AVG) .325 (OBP) .413 (SLG) .738 (OPS) 3.2 (WAR)
The Projections: In 2013, Boston's top prospect split his Minor League season between Double-A and Triple-A in 2013, posting a .297 average with 15 homers and an .865 OPS before contributing a .296 average (and .412 OBP) in 34 postseason at-bats. Steamer doesn't think Bogaerts' stellar plate discipline (.388 OBP in the Minors last year) will translate immediately, projecting an 8.2-percent walk rate despite Bogaerts' 12.2-percent mark in the Minors last year. It's not outrageous to think Bogaerts could beat Steamer's projected .325 on-base percentage, improving an already promising projection.
Playing Time Factors: Jonathan Herrera is the only other shortstop on Boston's 40-man roster, a signal that general manager Ben Cherington is ready to hand the reins over to Bogaerts. Unless Stephen Drew's asking price comes down, the Aruban Bogaerts should be the starting shortstop on Opening Day.
Fantasy Impact: If Steamer is right, Bogaerts will be slightly more valuable in real life than in fantasy in 2014. Though he could be a star quickly for the Red Sox, Bogaerts will be closer to the middle of the pack among shortstops in fantasy. His upside is higher than that, though, as he could hit for more power than he showed in the Minor Leagues. Just 21, his value is even higher in keeper leagues.
Jackie Bradley Jr., Boston Red Sox
Steamer Projections
650 (PA) 570 (AB) 16 (HR) 61 (BB) 127 (SO) 16 (SB) 10 (CS) .256 (AVG) .336 (OBP) .402 (SLG) .714 (OPS) 2.4 (WAR)
The Projections: Boston's No. 2 rated prospect struck out in 20.1-percent of his Triple-A at-bats in 2013, and Steamer thinks he can improve to a 19.6-percent clip in the Majors. At 2.4 wins above replacement (WAR), Bradley would be an above-average regular at the Major League level. If he can improve his stolen base rate (he was just 9-of-16 between Triple-A and the Majors in 2013) and lift his batting average through some combination of fewer strikeouts and higher batting average on balls in play (BABIP), Bradley could produce beyond his projections.
Playing Time Factors: With Jacoby Ellsbury out the door, Bradley appears to be next in line for the starting center field gig in Boston. Gold Glove right fielder Shane Victorino can handle center, but Boston has already voiced hesitation about move the Flyin' Hawaiian away from Pesky's Pole, leaving Bradley the only other in-house option. It's a good bet that, with Bradley in center and Bogaerts at short, the Red Sox will have rookies at two key positions when they take the field in Baltimore on March 31.
Fantasy Impact: Bradley's fantasy upside is high, but only if owners believe he'll hit for more power and steal more bags than he did in Triple-A last season. On the bases, Boston was aggressive and efficient under manager John Farrell last year, finishing fourth in the Majors with 123 steals while being caught an MLB-low 19 times. If Bradley is efficient, Farrell will let him run, but that's yet to be seen. At the same time, his stealing ability is built more around baserunning instincts than plus speed, and, as for the power, it may take a couple more years for that to play in the Majors.