Toolshed: Futures Game tale of the tape
It's one of the most exciting days on the Minor League calendar. We know who will be there. But who will win?Futures Game rosters were announced Thursday, and after the initial thrill of seeing who will take the field in Miami on July 9, we're left wondering which roster will
It's one of the most exciting days on the Minor League calendar. We know who will be there. But who will win?
Futures Game rosters were announced Thursday, and after the initial thrill of seeing who will take the field in Miami on July 9, we're left wondering which roster will have the advantage when prospect strength meets prospect strength. To help figure that out, Toolshed breaks down the U.S. and World rosters by position group to give a better idea of which team could come out on top in Marlins Park next weekend.
Catchers
The World team boasts Francisco Mejía, who has likely taken over for Carson Kelly as the game's top catching prospect at this point. The 21-year-old switch-hitter has a higher average (.343) at Double-A Akron this season than he did last season (.342) when he famously produced a 50-game hitting streak between Class A Lake County and Class A Advanced Lynchburg. Notably, he's also added more power with nine homers in 52 games. His framing remains a work in progress, but overall it's an exciting package.
However, the reason why Mejia alone doesn't give the World roster the easy advantage here is the fact that the U.S. counts not one, but two top-100 prospects among its catching ranks in No. 69 Zack Collins and No. 86 Chance Sisco. Collins has been a three-true-outcome player with a .211/.3678/.408 line and 10 homers in 69 games at Class A Advanced Winston-Salem, while showing a solid arm with a 43 percent caught-stealing rate. Sisco's profile is much more offensively driven, and his .266/.342/.383 line in 61 games at Triple-A Norfolk was enough to garner a spot on the International League All-Star roster.
The tipping of the scales might come down to No. 9 Mets prospect Tomás Nido, who will team up with Mejia on the World side. The 23-year-old won last season's Florida State League batting title but owns just a .254/.293/.392 line at Double-A Binghamton this season. However, he's been one of Double-A's best framers, according to Baseball Prospectus, and in one game with limited at-bats, a part-time catcher's biggest influence may be how he handles a rotating pitching staff.
Mejia's status among the Futures Game's most enticing talents regardless of position and Nido's ability to serve as a capable defensive backup is good enough here. Advantage: World
Infielders
This is a battle of immediate production versus overall talent.
The U.S. roster claims some of the best offensive performers from the first half of the Minor League season in Bo Bichette (Minors-best .402 average, 1.099 OPS), Brendan Rodgers (.384 average, 1.054 OPS), Rhys Hoskins (18 homers, 1.002 OPS), Scott Kingery (20 homers, .989 OPS) and Ryan McMahon (.369 average, 1.029 OPS). In fact, four of the eight full-season Minor Leaguers with an OPS above 1.000 will play in the U.S. infield alone. Those are going to be a lot of talented hitters sharing the same dirt.
But really, there's no overcoming the fact that the World infield has four of the top 27 prospects in all of baseball between No. 1 Yoán Moncada, No. 3 Amed Rosario, No. 12 Rafael Devers and No. 27 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Unfortunately, they won't all share the same field in all likelihood with Devers and Guerrero trading off at the hot corner. But the concept of any combination of that fearsome foursome featuring in the World lineup is the stuff of prospect dreams. And don't sleep on Astros first baseman Yordan Alvarez, who has 10 homers over 38 games in his first season stateside. We may talk about this particular infield in some special ways in short order. Advantage: World
Outfielders
There's a lot to like from both sides here. Both the U.S. and the World claim four top-100 prospects among their outfield corps, and that's saying something since both clubs only have five outfielders.
But the World has more than just four notable names. Top-10 prospects Victor Robles and Eloy Jiménez will be roaming the grass and taking their hacks on behalf of their shared homeland in the Dominican Republic. Jimenez is no stranger to the Futures Game either. The Cubs' top prospect homered, doubled and made an outstanding catch over the wall down the right-field line last year in San Diego -- a performance that arguably could have earned him MVP honors over Moncada. Robles has the chance to be a five-tool star with his power tool the only one not receiving at least a plus grade from MLB.com.
What keeps this close, though, is experience. The U.S. has not one but two players who are currently at the Triple-A level and have some Major League time this season. One is No. 13 overall prospect Lewis Brinson, who has used power, speed and overall hitting ability to thrive at Colorado Springs and get a look at Milwaukee. The other is No. 71 Derek Fisher, who has a case as the Pacific Coast League's first-half MVP with a .957 OPS, 17 homers and 13 steals. What's more, Fisher thrived in the bigs, going 5-for-18 with two homers and a steal in five games before a roster squeeze pushed him back to Fresno.
As talented as Jimenez and Robles are, Brinson and Fisher have still played three levels above them. If you want to give the World points for No. 51 prospect, Triple-A masher Alex Verdugo, then you have to acknowledge the talent of No. 28 Kyle Tucker. Checks and balances abound. The situation could change if Brinson or Fisher are back in the Majors and unable to play in Miami, but for now we'll call it even. Advantage: Push
Pitchers
If you have read this far and are starting to think that the World should be a heavy favorite July 9, wait right there.
One-game showcases such as this can be incredibly advantageous to pitchers, who can lay it all on the line in shorter stints than they're accustomed to. To wit, Amir Garrett was the only pitcher to throw two innings in last season's Futures Game. Meanwhile, World starter Alex Reyes hit triple digits with his fastball and threw some nasty curves while fanning four over 1 2/3 frames.
Now, think about the U.S. stable of arms this year. Imagine what No. 11 prospect Michael Kopech, king of velocity in the Minor Leagues, can do in a short stint. Think about what will happen when World hitters face a couple of screwballs from No. 23 prospect Brent Honeywell Jr.. No. 48 Triston McKenzie, No. 58 A.J. Puk and No. 97 Jack Flaherty have all enjoyed dominant 2017 seasons and should be running on plenty of adrenaline in their first Futures Game appearances. The U.S. could conceivably get as far as the seventh or eighth inning before handing the ball to a non-top-100 prospect.
Of course, there will be plenty to watch on the World mound as well. No. 40 prospect Yadier Álvarez seems to be the perfect candidate to garner wows from the Miami crowd with his 75-grade fastball and plus breaking balls. Both he and No. 84 Cal Quantrill should relish the chance to be out of the California League, and No. 65 prospect Mike Soroka, who owns a 2.18 ERA at Double-A despite being only 19, should be good for a zero when needed. But there isn't the same depth here as there is on the U.S. side, and that could hurt the World's cause on July 9. Advantage: U.S.
Sam Dykstra is a reporter for MiLB.com. Follow and interact with him on Twitter, @SamDykstraMiLB.
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