Toolshed: Assessing the three true outcomes
Three true outcomes -- no, these aren't theories about who will sit on the Iron Throne at the end of Game of Thrones. In baseball, the three true outcomes are the home run, walk and strikeout -- the potential results of a plate appearance that don't involve putting the ball in
Three true outcomes -- no, these aren't theories about who will sit on the Iron Throne at the end of Game of Thrones.
In baseball, the three true outcomes are the home run, walk and strikeout -- the potential results of a plate appearance that don't involve putting the ball in play (and thus involve the defense). It's not breaking news to any Major League fan that this trio of stats is taking over the modern game. More players are homering, walking and striking out in combination than ever before. In 2015, players set a record with 30.5 percent of plate appearances ending in one of the three true outcomes. In the early days of 2019, that number is up to 35.6 percent (as of Wednesday's games). In fact, big league hitters have set record highs for three-true-outcome percentage in each of the past four seasons and are well on their way to setting another record this season:
Batters are prioritizing hitting the ball hard, and hitting the ball in the air. Sometimes the former means swinging hard in all counts, even with two strikes. But if the batter can still make consistently hard contact when he does manage to put the bat on the ball, then strikeouts become more palatable. And as Moneyball tightens its grip around the game, walks also become more and more of a priority, and pitchers are obliging at times by staying away from the strike zone in their attempts to stay away from hitters' hot spots. And around and around it goes.
Of course, any trend in the Major Leagues is typically reflected in the Minor Leagues, where all 30 organizations are trying to build future stars in The Show. Indeed, since Major Leaguers set the three-true-outcome record in 2015 -- a record that's been broken three times since -- Minor Leaguers have seen their own combined homer/walk/strikeout percentage climb more than seven points. In fact, Minor Leaguers are doing more of all three than their Major League counterparts so far this season for the first time since 2013. (Note: only full-season leagues were considered to keep the Minor League data consistent across all seasons, including 2019.)
A big reason is the increase in dingers at Triple-A, where both the International and Pacific Coast Leagues are using the same baseballs as the Majors for the first time. Triple-A batters are hitting home runs in 3.3 percent of their plate appearances this season. That may not sound like a lot, but it's up from 2.3 percent last season. In essence, IL and PCL batters are on track to hit 1,500 more home runs this season than they did in 2018. And that's just one level.
So the "Age of the Three True Outcomes" isn't just a Major League story. It's also a Minor League one. Viewing the game through that lens, let's check in with some of the game's top prospects. Below are some who fit in the higher and lower extremes of three-true-outcome percentages in the Minors, and some who sit near the average.
Higher extreme
A's OF Lazaro Armenteros, Class A Advanced Stockton: 129 plate appearances, seven homers, 22 walks, 53 strikeouts, 63.6 percent -- The A's signed Armenteros for $3 million because of his potential to show multiple solid tools, and those include his strike-zone discipline and power. His seven homers are tied for the most in the California League, while his 22 walks are tied for second. But Oakland's No. 4 prospect also tops the Class A Advanced circuit in K's, leading to a .236/.372/.472 line that's all over the place. His 63.6 percent three-true-outcomes rate is fourth-highest in the Minors; Miami prospect
D-backs SS
Royals OF
Lower extreme
White Sox INF
Dodgers C
Marlins OF
Exactly average
Braves OF
White Sox OF
Braves OF
Sam Dykstra is a reporter for MiLB.com. Follow and interact with him on Twitter, @SamDykstraMiLB.