Brewers' Baez reversing his fortunes in Fall League

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- As the Arizona Fall League heads toward the midpoint of its season, samples are beginning to widen, hot players are beginning to cool, cold players are beginning to heat up. The cycle of baseball is working its wonders.

One constant through all the games has been Juan Baez.

The fourth-youngest Fall Leaguer in this year’s crop at just 19, Baez has been consistently one of the showcase circuit’s most productive hitters, a trend extended Wednesday when he went 2-for-3 with a homer, two walks and four RBIs in Peoria’s 11-10 win over Scottsdale at Scottsdale Stadium.

The Brewers’ No. 27 prospect currently leads the AFL with a .519 average, a .594 on-base percentage and a 1.483 OPS. He also ranks second in slugging percentage (.889), fifth in hits (14) and seventh in total bases (24).

After an uneven 2024 regular season, this red-hot autumn has buoyed the spirits of the Dominican Republic native.

“The Brewers reached out to me about two weeks before the AFL season started,” Baez said through interpreter Analis Castro. “I felt really happy, and I'm really thankful for the opportunity to play here. I'm thankful that the Brewers and the Fall League allowed me to be here.”

Performing on a Minor League stage is nothing new for the infielder. A $10,000 international signee in June 2022, Baez was named an Arizona Complex League All-Star the following year after ranking second in the Rookie-level circuit with a .370 average in 48 games. He made a late-season cameo with Single-A Carolina, returned to the full-season level this spring and shot out of the gate with a .318/.390/.435 line and more extra-base hits (eight) than strikeouts (six) over 21 games in April.

Baez showed signs of slowing down in May and stopped completely after May 29, when he injured his right shoulder diving back to the bag on a pickoff attempt. He returned to the Mudcats lineup on July 20 but never returned to his April form, hitting .245/.315/.301 without a homer in 40 games the rest of the way.

The right-handed slugger utilizes a large leg kick that can make him look like he’s geared up to aim for the parking lot, but that doesn’t come at the detriment of overall contact. His 9.0 percent strikeout rate during the regular season was the lowest among Single-A hitters (min. 350 PA); none of the other 112 batters in that category posted a K rate below 12.2 percent.

On Wednesday, he got to marry that ability to put bat on ball with a little bit of pop, sending a pitch from righty Lazaro Estrada (Blue Jays) down the line and into the left-field bullpen for a 370-foot, 98 mph homer -- his second dinger of the AFL, both of which have come in his last three games.

“I've just been working really hard on my lower body, especially in my legs,” Baez said. “I’m focusing on making contact and thank God it's been working out for me.”

Beyond the work at the plate, Baez has spent time defensively at a new home, playing only second base for the Javelinas. He got most of his reps at third base during the regular season, but his size (5-foot-10) and average arm strength make him a better fit for the keystone.

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The move to second is partially about AFL roster balance and also Baez’s future within the organization. Fellow Brewers prospect Brock Wilken (MIL No. 8) is among his Peoria teammates who have been getting looks at the hot corner, and 2024 breakout star Jesus Made (No. 4), Luke Adams (No. 9), Mike Boeve (No. 13) and Eric Bitonti (No. 14) are among the other ranked Brewers prospects who have third-base experience.

Now fully healthy, Baez is performing like a hitter -- say, one with more hits than outs -- an organization would want in the lineup every day.

“I’m putting in the hard work, and things are going my way,” he said. “We’re going to keep continuing to work hard.”