HOMESTAND PREVIEW: Lugnuts clash with Captains

After dropping four-of-six games against the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers last week, the Lansing Lugnuts (13-22, 42-57) come home to clash with the Lake County Captains (17-17, 54-44) in a six-game series that begins on Tuesday night. This is the third time the Lugnuts and Captains have faced off this season, but it is the first time the matchup will be at JacksonⓇ Field™.

After barely missing out on the division crown at the end of the first half, Lake County currently sits in fourth place within a tight Midwest League East, just two games back from the division-leading Great Lakes Loons.

The Captains have been dominant over Lansing in the first two meetings; Lake County won five-of-six against the Lugs in a series at the end of May and took four-of-six near the beginning of July.

Meet the Opponent

Lake County’s strength comes from its offense. In the second half, the Captains have the third-best batting average in the Midwest League (2.66) and are ranked second in OPS (.838), third in runs scored (219) and RBIs (198), fourth in hits (303), second in walks (204) and fourth in stolen bases (66).

Another concerning factor for the Lugnuts is the Captains’ home run hitting; Lake County has mashed 133 total homers this season (tied for 8th in High-A) and 45 in the second half so far (2nd in the league), posing a challenge for a Lansing pitching staff allowing the most home runs of any team in the league (48) since the reset of records in June.

Tyler Howard and Jonah Advincula lead the current squad in the second half, though both players have a limited sample size with the Captains; Howard is hitting .391/.525/.630 over 14 games since joining the team on June 30, and Advincula is slashing .304/.484/.500 in 13 games since July 17.

Tommy Hawke follows them up as the final player currently on the team hitting above .300 in the second half, batting .303/.397/.384 in 24 games.

On the home run front, watch for Welbyn Francisca, who has eight second-half homers (tied for 4th in league among qualified hitters), and Jace LaViolette, with seven round-trippers (tied for 8th).

Against the Lugnuts back in July, Lake County had six players hit above .300 and four hit above .400. Esteban González (five games, 16 AB), Anthony Martinez (one game, two AB) and Aaron Walton (six games, 22 AB) each hit .500, Howard (five games, 19 AB) hit .474 and Hawke (five games, 22 AB) hit .318. Lansing won’t have to worry about Dean Curley (.353 in five games, 17 AB), who was moved up to Double-A Akron on July 13.

The Captains’ pitching staff is much weaker than its offense, ranking 10th in the league over the second half in ERA (5.38), 11th in WHIP (1.63) and seventh in batting average against (.253).

In his seven second-half starts, Jacob Zibin is sixth in the league in ERA (3.74), sixth in WHIP (1.25), fourth in BAA (.214) and tied for fifth in strikeouts (37) over the fourth-most innings pitched (33.2) among qualified pitchers. Zibin pitched two games in the last series against Lansing, allowing 11 hits, five runs and five walks with 11 strikeouts over 9 ⅓ innings.

Southpaw Michael Kennedy has pitched in seven contests in the second half, starting in four. In his starts, Kennedy is 4-0, posting a 3.43 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP and a .200 BAA. When including his relief appearances, the ERA drops to 6.03, but the pitcher is ranked seventh in the league in BAA (.242) and ninth in WHIP (1.31) among qualified players in the tenth-most innings pitched (31.1). Against the Lugnuts on July 9, Kennedy pitched five innings, allowing five hits, two runs and a walk with four strikeouts.

Question Marks

The past couple of weeks have been pretty bipolar for Lansing, and the outcome of this series is dependent upon which Lugnuts team shows up.

The second half hitting numbers are bleak; as a team, Lansing is last in AVG (.219), SLG (.316), OPS (.640), runs scored (145), RBIs (135), hits (250) and home runs (16) and are tied for 11th in OBP (.324) and solely 11th in stolen bases (40).

But, two weeks ago the Lugnuts hosted the division-leading Great Lakes Loons and won the series with four wins. The offense hit .243/.380/.341 and scored 35 runs over the course of six games against a typically-ferocious Great Lakes pitching staff.

On the road against Wisconsin last week, however, the offense stumbled, hitting a mere .186/.284/.305 and scoring just 16 runs. The Lugnuts dropped four games against the Timber Rattlers, including back-to-back 10-0 and 9-0 losses.

The Lugnuts’ pitching presents arguably just as big of a question mark. Since the promotions of Nathan Dettmer, Zane Taylor and Ben Hansen between July 21-22, Lansing hasn’t had a full starting rotation, meaning it has had to rely on its bullpen to pull more weight than usual.

To their credit, the relievers produced some notable performances against the Loons two weeks ago; Jorge Marcheco, Riley Huge and Blaze Pontes combined to win a 3-1 contest on July 24, and Tucker Novotny, Tzu-Chen Sha, Luis Carrasco, Griffin Kirn and Abel Mercedes kept the team afloat for an 8-5 win on July 25.

But it hasn’t all been sunshine and rainbows, with Marcheco struggling in the 10-0 loss to Wisconsin (allowing five home runs) and Novotny giving up four runs to the first five batters in a 6-4 loss to the Timber Rattlers.

Powell’s Predictions

If the Lugnuts want to take down the Captains in a series for the first time this season, both the offense and the pitching needs to click, and the team has proven it to be possible, even against good teams.

With the pitching being somewhat of a question mark, I believe it is imperative for veteran starters Steven Echavarria and Samuel Dutton to perform well. Also keep an eye on knuckleballer Devin Kirby-Williams; the former indy ball pitcher threw five scoreless innings against Wisconsin in his start last week, maybe a sign of what is to come.

If the team performs well on both sides of the ball, I think the Lugnuts can split the series against the Captains with three victories.